Defensores Unidos x Atletico Rafaela Betting tips for September 29 in Argentina Nacional B

Our betting tip for Defensores Unidos x Atletico Rafaela, Sunday, 29/9/2024

📅 29/9/2024 15:00

Defensores Unidos 2.27

X 2.80

Atletico Rafaela 3.25

This is the tip that our machine learning model has selected for Defensores Unidos x Atletico Rafaela:

👎 Unfortunately, we did not find any positive expected value bets for Defensores Unidos x Atletico Rafaela

Important information for your tip for Defensores Unidos x Atletico Rafaela: 👉 If you had bet $100 on Defensores Unidos in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-190.0. 👉 If you had bet $100 on Atletico Rafaela in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-500.

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Analysis from Defensores Unidos x Atletico Rafaela for the Argentina Nacional B – 29 of September

When the best bet on Defensores Unidos x Atletico Rafaela is analysed, notice that our AI model is not interested in getting the right result, but instead in looking for situations where the bookies offer us a positive expected value.

And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1190630 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:

Tips for the 1×2 market for Defensores Unidos x Atletico Rafaela

Is it a good idea to bet on Defensores Unidos?

🔵 Defensores Unidos: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 38.76%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 2.27. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 390 times – profiting $495.30;
• And would lose other 610 times – having a loss of -$610.00 with them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$114.70.

Is it a good idea to bet on draw?

⚪ draw: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 32.78% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 2.80. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 330 times – profiting $594.00;
• And would have lost other 670 times – with a loss of -$670.00 because of them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$76.00.

Should you bet on Atletico Rafaela?

🔴 Atletico Rafaela: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 28.46% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.25. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 280 times – profiting $630.00;
• And would lose other 720 times – losing -$720.00 with them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$90.00.

Handicaps analysis for the match Defensores Unidos x Atletico Rafaela

Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. Maybe you do not even know what this is. If handicap is a 7-headed monster for you, all you have to do is click on our article about Asian handicap on football betting and you will find a complete material to quickly teach you how it works. Click on it and leave it open on another tab to read later..

Moving ahead we can see what the model has in store for these markets here:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.25 Defensores Unidos
⚽ Expected goals: 2.25 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Defensores Unidos x Atletico Rafaela

⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is -0.25 Defensores Unidos and the available handicap to bet at the moment is -0.25 Defensores Unidos. As the handicap available on the market is the same as that indicated by our robot, we will do nothing since there is not value bets on the Handicap 1×2 market.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Defensores Unidos x Atletico Rafaela

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.25 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 1.75 goals.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.50, this means that the best bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 1.75 goals.