Deportivo Garcilaso x Alianza Lima Betting tips for April 15 in Peru Liga 1

Our betting tip for Deportivo Garcilaso x Alianza Lima, Tuesday, 15/4/2025

📅 15/4/2025 00:30

Deportivo Garcilaso 2.48

X 3.00

Alianza Lima 2.89

This is the tip that our machine learning model has selected for Deportivo Garcilaso x Alianza Lima:

👎 Umm…too bad! We did not find any positive expected value bets for Deportivo Garcilaso x Alianza Lima

Some important points for the tip for Deportivo Garcilaso x Alianza Lima: 👉 If you had bet $100 on Deportivo Garcilaso in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a profit of $82.0. 👉 If you had bet $100 on Alianza Lima in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a profit of $300.0. 👉 In the last 7 matches as the home team, Deportivo Garcilaso scored at least 1 goal(s). 👉 In the last 6 Alianza Lima matches as the away team, it finished over 2.5 goals. 👉 In the last 7 matches as the away team, Alianza Lima conceded at least 1 goal(s). 👉 Deportivo Garcilaso is good playing home: it has 3 wins in a row in its last matches at home.

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Analysis from Deportivo Garcilaso x Alianza Lima for the Peru Liga 1 – 15 of April

When the best bet on Deportivo Garcilaso x Alianza Lima is analysed, notice that our AI model is not interested in getting the right result, but instead in looking for situations where the bookies offer us a positive expected value.

And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1304036 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:

Tips for the 1×2 market for Deportivo Garcilaso x Alianza Lima

Is betting on Deportivo Garcilaso worth it?

🔵 Deportivo Garcilaso: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 44.31%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 2.48. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would have hit 440 times – having a profit of $651.20;
• And would have lost other 560 times – with a loss of -$560.00 because of them.

We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$91.20.

Is it a good idea to bet on draw?

⚪ draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 35.46% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.00. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 350 times – this would give you a profit of $700.00
• And would have lost other 650 times – with a loss of -$650.00 because of them.

Even if it is a positive expected value bet, the expected profit is just 💰$50.00 which is not worth the risk in our opinion.

Is it a good idea to bet on Alianza Lima?

🔴 Alianza Lima: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 20.22%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 2.89. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would have hit 200 times – having a profit of $378.00;
• And would have lost other 800 times – with a loss of -$800.00 because of them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$422.00.

Handicaps analysis for the match Deportivo Garcilaso x Alianza Lima

The handicap market is also very searched for by bettors in professional bookmakers and our model can help you with that. Maybe you do not even know what this is. If handicap is a 7-headed monster for you, all you have to do is click on our article about Asian handicap on football betting and you will find a complete material to quickly teach you how it works. Click on it and leave it open on another tab to read later..

Moving ahead we can see what the model has in store for these markets here:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: 0.0 Deportivo Garcilaso
⚽ Expected goals: 2.75 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Deportivo Garcilaso x Alianza Lima

⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 0.0 Deportivo Garcilaso and the available handicap to bet at the moment is +0.25 Deportivo Garcilaso.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is -0.25, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: +0.25 Deportivo Garcilaso.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Deportivo Garcilaso x Alianza Lima

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.75 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.75 goals.

Since there is not big differences between the handicap offered by bookies and the one suggested by our algorithm, we can consider that there is no value to bet on the Goals Handicap market.