Deportivo Riestra x CA Independiente Betting tips for November 10 in Argentina Liga Profesional

Our betting tip for Deportivo Riestra x CA Independiente, Monday, 10/11/2025

📅 10/11/2025 22:00

Deportivo Riestra 3.12

X 2.62

CA Independiente 2.65

Our algorithm has selected this tip for Deportivo Riestra x CA Independiente:

🔮 Tied Match
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Important information for your tip for Deportivo Riestra x CA Independiente:

👉 If you had bet $100 on Deportivo Riestra in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a profit of $425.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on CA Independiente in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-500.
👉 In the last 7 matches as the home team, Deportivo Riestra scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 4 CA Independiente matches as the away team, it finished under 2.5 goals.

🤖 What’s ChatGPT’s opinion on our prediction for Deportivo Riestra vs CA Independiente?

Lets analyze the match between Deportivo Riestra and CA Independiente at Estadio Guillermo Laza, which is Deportivo Riestras usual stadium, giving them the home advantage. 🏟️

📈 Deportivo Riestra is in good form playing at home, with 4 wins and only 1 draw in their last 5 games at their stadium, averaging 1.8 goals per game and conceding just 0.4 goals. Meanwhile, Independiente has been performing poorly away recently, with no wins in their last 5 away games (0W-3D-2L), scoring little (average 0.4 goals) and conceding more (average 0.8 goals). Overall in the league, Independiente has a better offensive average (7 goals in last 5 games) but also concedes fewer (3 goals). Ball possession clearly favors the visitor with about 51% compared to the modest 36% of the home team.

Median odds indicate approximate normalized implied probabilities: home win ~32%, draw ~37%, away win ~31%. Considering Deportivo Riestras solid defensive stats at home and Independientes recent offensive fragility away, I would estimate a fair probability for the home team to win slightly higher than the odds (~38%), a close draw (~33%), and a lower chance of an away win (~29%).

Expected value calculations based on final odds:

• Bet on home win: Negative EV (-22%) as the odds are too high for my calculation.
• Bet on draw: Positive EV (+17%), indicating value in this bet.
• Bet on away win: Negative EV (-13%).

📰 News shows Deportivo Riestra is fighting for a spot in the Copa Sudamericana and is well positioned in the annual table, while Independiente is trying to recover after a poor start but remains far from the playoffs; additionally, some key players are absent from Independiente due to Chilean national team call-ups — this could negatively impact their performance.

Given all this, I partially agree with the Bets Kenya model by indicating value in the draw — it’s the safest bet considering tactical balance and team situations — but I disagree with the high odds for the visiting team’s win given their recent away difficulties.

Final suggestion: bet on draw, as it presents a positive expected value (>5%) combined with solid statistical analysis and current team context.
Good luck! 🍀⚽️

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Analysis from Deportivo Riestra x CA Independiente for the Argentina Liga Profesional – 10 of November

When the best bet on Deportivo Riestra x CA Independiente is analysed, notice that our AI model is not interested in getting the right result, but instead in looking for situations where the bookies offer us a positive expected value.

Therefore, to find the numbers, our artificial intelligence has colected information from around 1435951 matches on our betting database, in order to calculate the probabilities of this match ending with a home team victory, a tied match or even an away team victory. Check out the results:

Latest news on the match between Deportivo Riestra and CA Independiente

Deportivo Riestra: Deportivo Riestra is currently fighting for a spot in the 2025 Argentine Copa Sudamericana in the Clausura Tournament, holding fifth place in the annual table with 51 points after the 14th round, tied with Argentinos Juniors and just behind San Lorenzo, which has 49 points. The team suffered a narrow 1-0 defeat to San Lorenzo at Nuevo Gasómetro in this round, a result that helped San Lorenzo approach the round of 16, while keeping Riestra in the South American zone. Despite the loss, Riestra remains in the race for the knockout stage and is scheduled to face Argentinos Juniors in the round of 16, with the club aiming to secure a place in the continental competition as the season approaches the final matches.

Independiente: Under Gustavo Quinteros, Independiente turned a poor start into a brief recovery, winning consecutive matches 3-0 over Platense and Atlético Tucumán, renewing hopes of reaching the Clausura playoffs and securing a spot in the Copa Sudamericana. However, the club remains in 13th place in Group B with 12 points and needs to win its last two matches, relying on favorable results in other games. Midfielder Kevin Lomónaco and defender Santiago Montiel, who were out due to injury in the win at Tucumán, are cleared for the Monday night match against Deportivo Riestra at Guillermo Laza Stadium. Meanwhile, forwards Felipe Loyola and Lautaro Millán have been called up to the Chilean national team and will miss the next match against Central, leaving the team dependent on recent starters’ performance to keep the momentum.

Table analysis for the game between Deportivo Riestra and CA Independiente

Deportivo Riestra: Deportivo Riestra is currently in 2nd place in Group B of the Argentine Professional League Clausura Tournament, with 27 points from 14 matches, just 3 points behind the leader Rosario Central. They are in the playoff qualification zone, which determines the champion and international spots. A win against CA Independiente could reduce the gap to the leader, strengthening their position and increasing the chances of advancing to the playoffs as one of the top teams, which provides an advantage in the knockout stage. A draw or loss could keep the team in the group but increase pressure for upcoming matches, as other teams like Lanús and Vélez are close in points.

CA Independiente: CA Independiente is in 13th place in Group B with 12 points, tied with Platense, but far from the playoff zone (which starts from 1st to 6th place in the group). They are quite threatened, as the gap to the 6th place is 9 points, with 13 matches remaining. The match against Deportivo Riestra is relevant to try to close the distance and fight for a spot, but a victory, although good for morale, does not guarantee a comfortable situation, requiring a positive streak in upcoming matches to dream of the playoffs.

Summary: The game between Deportivo Riestra and CA Independiente is highly important, especially for Deportivo Riestra, which is directly fighting for a playoff spot and can approach the leader with a victory. For CA Independiente, the match has medium-high importance, serving as a valuable chance to reduce the gap and rekindle the chance of qualification, but the teams overall situation still requires greater effort in the upcoming rounds. Therefore, the confrontation is decisive for Riestra and highly important for Independiente, being a tense game with a significant impact at the top of Group B.

Tips for the Match Odds market for Deportivo Riestra x CA Independiente

Should you bet on Deportivo Riestra?

🔵 Deportivo Riestra: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 24.66%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 3.12. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 250 times – this would give you a profit of $530.00
• And would lose other 750 times – losing -$750.00 with them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$220.00.

Should you bet on draw?

⚪ draw: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 41.81% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 2.62. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 420 times – this would give you a profit of $680.40
• And would lose other 580 times – having a loss of -$580.00 with them.

It is a value bet, since after all you would have an expected final profit of 💰$100.40.

Should you bet on CA Independiente?

🔴 CA Independiente: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 33.53% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 2.65. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 340 times – this would give you a profit of $561.00
• And would lose other 660 times – having a loss of -$660.00 with them.

That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$99.00.

Handicaps analysis for the match Deportivo Riestra x CA Independiente

Maybe you prefer another approach: betting on Asian handicaps. We thought about it and our model also seeks to find the main handicaps of the most important markets. If you have no idea what a handicap is, do not worry! We have a complete article about the Asian handicap on sporting betting that will answer all your questions. You can click on it and leave it open on another tab so you can read later.

Moving ahead we can see what the model has in store for these markets here:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: +0.25 Deportivo Riestra
⚽ Expected goals: 2.25 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Deportivo Riestra x CA Independiente

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be +0.25 Deportivo Riestra, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 0.0 Deportivo Riestra.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.25, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: -0.0 CA Independiente.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Deportivo Riestra x CA Independiente

⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 2.25 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 1.75 goals.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.50. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 1.75 goals.