Derby x Leeds Betting tips for January 11 in England FA Cup
| 📅 11/1/2026 12:00 |
 Derby4.53 |
X 3.52 |
Leeds  1.72 |
This is the tip that our machine learning model has selected for Derby x Leeds:
🔮 Leeds wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Leeds, you can win up to $860.00!
The main points for the tip for Derby x Leeds:
👉 If you had bet $100 on Derby in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-190.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Leeds in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-500.
👉 In the last 8 matches as the home team, Derby scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 Playing as the home team, Derby conceded at least 1 goal(s) in all the last 5 head-to-head against Leeds.
👉 Even as a visitor, Leeds won the last 4 head-to-head matches Derby´s territory
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Analysis from Derby x Leeds for the England FA Cup – 11 of January
🏟️ Derby X Leeds – England FA Cup
📅 11 of January, 2026 – 12:00
🔵 Derby – Winning probability: 11.95% | Fair line: 8.37
⚪ Tied game – Probability of tied match: 11.30% | Fair line: 8.85
🔴 Leeds – Winning probability: 76.75% | Fair line: 1.3
⚖ Handicap 1×2: +0.25 Derby
⚽ Expected goals: 3.25 goals
⛳ Expected corner kicks: 9.50 corner kicks
Tips for the Match Odds market for Derby x Leeds
Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Derby x Leeds right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.
Therefore, to find the numbers, our artificial intelligence has colected information from around 1461290 matches on our betting database, in order to calculate the probabilities of this match ending with a home team victory, a tied match or even an away team victory. Check out the results:
Should you bet on Derby?
🔵 Derby: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 11.95% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 4.53. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:
- Would hit 120 times – profiting $423.60;
- And would have lost other 880 times – with a loss of -$880.00 because of them.
We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$456.40.
Is it worth betting on draw?
⚪ draw: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 11.3% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.52. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would have hit 110 times – having a profit of $277.20;
- And would lose other 890 times – losing -$890.00 with them.
We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$612.80.
Is it a good idea to bet on Leeds?
🔴 Leeds: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 76.75% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 1.72. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would have hit 770 times – having a profit of $554.40;
- And would have lost other 230 times – with a loss of -$230.00 because of them.
So this is a value bet. After all, at the end of these bets, you would have an expected profit of 💰$324.40.
Handicaps analysis for the match Derby x Leeds
Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. If you have no idea what a handicap is, do not worry! We have a complete article about the Asian handicap on sporting betting that will answer all your questions. You can click on it and leave it open on another tab so you can read later.
Moving ahead we can see what the model has in store for these markets here:
⚖ Handicap 1×2: +0.25 Derby
⚽ Expected goals: 3.25 goals
Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Derby x Leeds
⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be +0.25 Derby, and the current handicap offered by bookies is +0.75 Derby.
Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is -0.50, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: +0.75 Derby.
Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Derby x Leeds
⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 3.25 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.50 goals.
We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.75. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.50 goals.
