📊 Check out the analysis on Betfellows for this match: Full prognostic for Egypt x Sudan
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Analysis from Egypt x Sudan for the Africa Cup of Nations – 19 of January
🏟️ Egypt X Sudan – Africa Cup of Nations
Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Egypt x Sudan right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.
To achieve that, the algorithm analyses more than 289909 matches from Betfellows database, our collaborative prediction platform, seeking for patterns to get to the winning probabilities for the home team, a tie or a victory for the away team. That was the conclusion from our artificial intelligence:
Tips for the 1×2 market for Egypt x Sudan
Is it a good idea to bet on Egypt?
🔵 Egypt: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 95.32% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 1.25. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:
- Would hit 950 times – profiting $237.50;
- And would lose other 50 times – losing -$50.00 with them.
So this is a value bet. After all, at the end of these bets, you would have an expected profit of 💰$187.50.
Should you bet on draw?
⚪ draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 3.23% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 4.85. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 30 times – this would give you a profit of $115.50
- And would lose other 970 times – having a loss of -$970.00 with them.
That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$854.50.
Is it worth betting on Sudan?
🔴 Sudan: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 1.45%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 13.00. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would have hit 10 times – having a profit of $120.00;
- And would have lost other 990 times – with a loss of -$990.00 because of them.
That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$870.00.
Handicaps analysis for the match Egypt x Sudan
Maybe you prefer another approach: betting on Asian handicaps. We thought about it and our model also seeks to find the main handicaps of the most important markets. In case you do not know what handicaps are, we will solve this problem now: we sorted out the material about Asian handicap on betting so you can click and save it to learn about it on the first opportunity.
These are the handicaps that our algorithm analysed for you:
⚖ Handicap 1×2: -2.0 Egypt
⚽ Expected goals: 3.00 goals
Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Egypt x Sudan
⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is -2.0 Egypt and the available handicap to bet at the moment is -1.5 Egypt.
We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is -0.50. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: -1.5 Egypt.
Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Egypt x Sudan
⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 3.00 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.25 goals.
We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.75. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.25 goals.
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Hi there! You can call me Beto! I'm 32 years old, graduated in Business Management and now I'm doing my second degree in Statistics and Data Science, which is really helpful to bring the Machine Learning models applied in sports betting that you see here. Even though I'm in this betting world since 2010, there's still a lot to be learned.> Check other content created by Humberto Alves