📊 Check out the analysis from this match on Betfellows: Complete prognostic for ES Setif x RC Arba
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Analysis from ES Setif x RC Arba for the Algeria Division 1 – 21 of January
🏟️ ES Setif X RC Arba – Algeria Division 1
Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for ES Setif x RC Arba right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.
And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 290173 matches on the database from our soccer prognostics platform, Betfellows, looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:
Tips for the 1×2 market for ES Setif x RC Arba
Is it worth betting on ES Setif?
🔵 ES Setif: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 78.35% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 1.31. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would have hit 780 times – having a profit of $241.80;
- And would lose other 220 times – losing -$220.00 with them.
Even if it is a positive expected value bet, the expected profit is just 💰$21.80 which is not worth the risk in our opinion.
Is it worth betting on draw?
⚪ draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 17.55% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 4.50. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 180 times – this would give you a profit of $630.00
- And would have lost other 820 times – with a loss of -$820.00 because of them.
So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$190.00.
Should you bet on RC Arba?
🔴 RC Arba: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 4.1%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 8.32. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 40 times – profiting $292.80;
- And would lose other 960 times – having a loss of -$960.00 with them.
Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$667.20.
Handicaps analysis for the match ES Setif x RC Arba
Another important market to analyse is the Asian handicaps one, our algorithm is also going to help you with that. If you have no idea what a handicap is, do not worry! We have a complete article about the Asian handicap on sporting betting that will answer all your questions. You can click on it and leave it open on another tab so you can read later.
This is what our nice robot has to tell us about these markets:
⚖ Handicap 1×2: -1.5 ES Setif
⚽ Expected goals: 3.00 goals
Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for ES Setif x RC Arba
⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be -1.5 ES Setif, and the current handicap offered by bookies is -1.25 ES Setif.
We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is -0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: -1.25 ES Setif.
Tips for the Goals Handicap market for ES Setif x RC Arba
⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 3.00 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.50 goals.
Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.50, this means that the best bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.50 goals.
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Hi there! You can call me Beto! I'm 32 years old, graduated in Business Management and now I'm doing my second degree in Statistics and Data Science, which is really helpful to bring the Machine Learning models applied in sports betting that you see here. Even though I'm in this betting world since 2010, there's still a lot to be learned.> Check other content created by Humberto Alves