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Home » Predictions » Others » Estudiantes Merida x Deportivo La Guaira Betting tips for October 30 in Venezuela Primera Division
Wednesday, 30 October 2024, 23h30 Venezuela Primera Division
Estudiantes Merida Estudiantes Merida
PREDICTION Draw Match Probability 34% 1 X 2
Deportivo La Guaira Deportivo La Guaira
ODD: @3.1 Don't miss this prediction!

Estudiantes Merida x Deportivo La Guaira Betting tips for October 30 in Venezuela Primera Division

Our betting tip for Estudiantes Merida x Deportivo La Guaira, Wednesday, 30/10/2024
📅 30/10/2024
23:30
Estudiantes Merida Estudiantes Merida
2.50
X
3.10
Deportivo La Guaira Deportivo La Guaira
2.68

This is the bet made by our artificial intelligence for Estudiantes Merida x Deportivo La Guaira:

🔮 Tied Match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on a tie, you can win up to $1550.00!

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Important information for your tip for Estudiantes Merida x Deportivo La Guaira:

👉 If you had bet $100 on Estudiantes Merida in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a profit of $388.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Deportivo La Guaira in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-500.
👉 Estudiantes Merida did not concede a goal in the last 3 matches as home team.
👉 In the last 5 matches as the home team against Deportivo La Guaira, Estudiantes Merida scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 Playing as the home team, Estudiantes Merida conceded at least 1 goal(s) in all the last 5 head-to-head against Deportivo La Guaira.

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Summary

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Analysis from Estudiantes Merida x Deportivo La Guaira for the Venezuela Primera Division – 30 of October

🏟️ Estudiantes Merida X Deportivo La Guaira – Venezuela Primera Division
📅 30 of October, 2024 – 23:30
🔵 Estudiantes Merida – Winning probability: 39.12% | Fair line: 2.56
Tied game – Probability of tied match: 34.76% | Fair line: 2.88
🔴 Deportivo La Guaira – Winning probability: 26.12% | Fair line: 3.83
⚖ Handicap 1×2: 0.0 Estudiantes Merida
⚽ Expected goals: 2.50 goals
⛳ Expected corner kicks: 9.75 corner kicks

Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Estudiantes Merida x Deportivo La Guaira right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.

To achieve that, the algorithm analyses more than 1212930 matches from our database seeking for patterns to get to the winning probabilities for the home team, a tie or a victory for the away team. That was the conclusion from our artificial intelligence:

Tips for the Match Odds market for Estudiantes Merida x Deportivo La Guaira

Is it worth betting on Estudiantes Merida?

🔵 Estudiantes Merida: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 39.12% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 2.50. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

  • Would have hit 390 times – having a profit of $585.00;
  • And would lose other 610 times – losing -$610.00 with them.

That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$25.00.

Is betting on draw worth it?

draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 34.76% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.10. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

  • Would hit 350 times – profiting $735.00;
  • And would have lost other 650 times – with a loss of -$650.00 because of them.

Mathematically speaking, this is a value bet because you would have an expected final profit of 💰$85.00.

Is betting on Deportivo La Guaira worth it?

🔴 Deportivo La Guaira: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 26.12%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 2.68. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

  • Would have hit 260 times – having a profit of $436.80;
  • And would have lost other 740 times – with a loss of -$740.00 because of them.

That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$303.20.

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Handicaps analysis for the match Estudiantes Merida x Deportivo La Guaira

The handicap market is also very searched for by bettors in professional bookmakers and our model can help you with that. If you have no idea what a handicap is, do not worry! We have a complete article about the Asian handicap on sporting betting that will answer all your questions. You can click on it and leave it open on another tab so you can read later.

This is what our nice robot has to tell us about these markets:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: 0.0 Estudiantes Merida
⚽ Expected goals: 2.50 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Estudiantes Merida x Deportivo La Guaira

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 0.0 Estudiantes Merida, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 0.0 Estudiantes Merida.

Since the handicap offered by bookmakers is the same as the one we got with our model, there is not any value bets on the Handicap 1×2 market.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Estudiantes Merida x Deportivo La Guaira

⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 2.50 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.25 goals.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.25, this means that the best bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.25 goals.

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Written by

Autor
Humberto Alves

Hi there! You can call me Beto! I'm 32 years old, graduated in Business Management and now I'm doing my second degree in Statistics and Data Science, which is really helpful to bring the Machine Learning models applied in sports betting that you see here. Even though I'm in this betting world since 2010, there's still a lot to be learned.

> Check other content created by Humberto Alves
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