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Home » Predictions » Others » FC Porto x Moreirense Betting tips for October 31 in Portugal League Cup
Thursday, 31 October 2024, 20h45 Portugal League Cup
FC Porto FC Porto
PREDICTION FC Porto wins Probability 92% 1 X 2
Moreirense Moreirense
ODD: @1.27 Don't miss this prediction!

FC Porto x Moreirense Betting tips for October 31 in Portugal League Cup

Our betting tip for FC Porto x Moreirense, Thursday, 31/10/2024
📅 31/10/2024
20:45
FC Porto FC Porto
1.27
X
5.00
Moreirense Moreirense
9.50

Our algorithm has selected this tip for FC Porto x Moreirense:

🔮 FC Porto wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on FC Porto, you can win up to $635.00!

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Some important points for the tip for FC Porto x Moreirense:

👉 If you had bet $100 on FC Porto in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a profit of $20.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Moreirense in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-150.0.
👉 In the last 8 matches as the home team, FC Porto scored at least 2 goal(s).
👉 In the last 8 matches as the away team, Moreirense scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 5 matches as the home team against Moreirense, FC Porto scored at least 3 goal(s).
👉 In the last 5 head-to-head matches between FC Porto x Moreirense, with FC Porto as the home team, they finished over 2.5 goals.
👉 FC Porto has won all the last 5 matches playing at home against Moreirense.

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Summary

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Analysis from FC Porto x Moreirense for the Portugal League Cup – 31 of October

🏟️ FC Porto X Moreirense – Portugal League Cup
📅 31 of October, 2024 – 20:45
🔵 FC Porto – Winning probability: 92.82% | Fair line: 1.08
Tied game – Probability of tied match: 3.93% | Fair line: 25.42
🔴 Moreirense – Winning probability: 3.25% | Fair line: 30.81
⚖ Handicap 1×2: -1.75 FC Porto
⚽ Expected goals: 3.75 goals
⛳ Expected corner kicks: 10.25 corner kicks

When the best bet on FC Porto x Moreirense is analysed, notice that our AI model is not interested in getting the right result, but instead in looking for situations where the bookies offer us a positive expected value.

To achieve that, the algorithm analyses more than 1213279 matches from our database seeking for patterns to get to the winning probabilities for the home team, a tie or a victory for the away team. That was the conclusion from our artificial intelligence:

Tips for the Match Odds market for FC Porto x Moreirense

Is it a good idea to bet on FC Porto?

🔵 FC Porto: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 92.82% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 1.27. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

  • Would hit 930 times – this would give you a profit of $251.10
  • And would lose other 70 times – losing -$70.00 with them.

That is why this is a value bet. In the end, you would have had a final profit of 💰$181.10.

Is it worth betting on draw?

draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 3.93% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 5.00. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

  • Would hit 40 times – this would give you a profit of $160.00
  • And would lose other 960 times – losing -$960.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$800.00.

Is it a good idea to bet on Moreirense?

🔴 Moreirense: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 3.25% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 9.50. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

  • Would have hit 30 times – having a profit of $255.00;
  • And would lose other 970 times – losing -$970.00 with them.

We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$715.00.

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Handicaps analysis for the match FC Porto x Moreirense

Maybe you prefer another approach: betting on Asian handicaps. We thought about it and our model also seeks to find the main handicaps of the most important markets. If you have no idea what a handicap is, do not worry! We have a complete article about the Asian handicap on sporting betting that will answer all your questions. You can click on it and leave it open on another tab so you can read later.

Take a look at what our artificial intelligence has set apart for these markets:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -1.75 FC Porto
⚽ Expected goals: 3.75 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for FC Porto x Moreirense

⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is -1.75 FC Porto and the available handicap to bet at the moment is -1.5 FC Porto.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is -0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: -1.5 FC Porto.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for FC Porto x Moreirense

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 3.75 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.75 goals.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 1.00. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.75 goals.

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Written by

Autor
Humberto Alves

Hi there! You can call me Beto! I'm 32 years old, graduated in Business Management and now I'm doing my second degree in Statistics and Data Science, which is really helpful to bring the Machine Learning models applied in sports betting that you see here. Even though I'm in this betting world since 2010, there's still a lot to be learned.

> Check other content created by Humberto Alves
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