Ferroviaria SP x Vila Nova Betting tips for July 6 in Brazil Serie B

Our betting tip for Ferroviaria SP x Vila Nova, Sunday, 6/7/2025

📅 6/7/2025 19:00

Ferroviaria SP 2.25

X 2.80

Vila Nova 3.45

This is the bet from our artificial intelligence for Ferroviaria SP x Vila Nova:

👎 Umm…too bad! We did not find any positive expected value bets for Ferroviaria SP x Vila Nova

Important information for your tip for Ferroviaria SP x Vila Nova:

👉 If you had bet $100 on Ferroviaria SP in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a profit of $215.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Vila Nova in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-150.0.
👉 In the last 6 matches as the home team, Ferroviaria SP scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 3 Ferroviaria SP matches as the home team, it finished under 2.5 goals.
👉 In the last 4 matches as the away team, Vila Nova conceded at least 1 goal(s).
👉 It is not a good time for Vila Nova as away team: it comes from 4 losses in a row in its last away matches.

🤖 ChatGPT’s take on our prediction for Ferroviaria SP vs Vila Nova:

Lets analyze the match between Ferroviária SP and Vila Nova, which will take place at Estádio Dr. Adhemar de Barros, home of Ferroviária. The stadium is the usual venue for the home team, which favors the Araraquara team.

Statistically, Ferroviária has a solid home performance: scored 7 goals and only conceded 3 in the last 5 games at their stadium, with 3 wins and no losses during this period. Vila Nova, on the other hand, shows difficulties away from home, with only 1 win and 4 losses in their last five away games in the same league, scoring few goals (2) and conceding more (6). The average goals per game also favors Ferroviária (1 goal per game at home versus zero average for Vila Nova away).

The implied probabilities of the median odds are:

• Ferroviária win: ~44.4%
• Draw: ~35.6%
• Vila Nova win: ~27.8%

Adjusting for normalization due to the bookmakers margin, we have approximate fair probabilities:

• Ferroviária wins: about 43%
• Draw: about 34%
• Vila Nova wins: about 23%

Analyzing the offensive and defensive statistics of the teams along with recent news — where Vila Nova is trying to recover after a poor streak but still shows fragility away — reinforces the advantage for Ferroviária.

Analysis of fair odds:

• The fair odds for Ferroviária victory are close to @2.33 considering their good home performance;
• The fair odds for a draw are around @2.94;
• And for Vila Nova victory, it rises to about @4.35 due to low away performance.

Expected value (EV) calculation using the final odds provided:

• EV Ferroviária win = ((2.20 / 2.33) -1)*100 ≈ -5.58% → no positive expected value;

• EV Draw = ((2.80 / 2.94) -1)*100 ≈ -4.76% → no positive expected value;

• EV Vila Nova win = ((3.50 / 4.35) -1)*100 ≈ -19.54% → no positive expected value.

No bet shows an EV greater than +5%, indicating no clear value bet according to this combined analysis.

Comparison with the Bets Kenya model:
The model suggests betting on the home team win (Ferroviária), showing a positive EV above +5%. However, it greatly overestimates the home teams chances by assigning a predicted lower odds (~2.08) compared to the actual odds (~2.20-2.25). It also underestimates the draw and especially the visiting teams high probability in its predicted odds (>5), diverging from recent statistics.
I partially agree with the model regarding the preference for Ferroviárias victory due to the overall favorable scenario for the home team at Estádio Dr. Adhemar de Barros, but I believe the current odds do not offer a clear value bet in this match.

📰 Important news:
– Ferroviária is playing normally at their usual stadium after a period of maintenance on the pitch;
– Vila Nova is trying to recover after a recent negative streak;
– The psychological factor may slightly favor the home team at this moment.

Overall, my recommendation is caution! Despite the data indicating a clear favoritism for Ferroviária, there is no evident value bet in the current odds; therefore, avoiding large bets or seeking alternative markets may be more prudent 😉⚽️

Looking for another bookie to bet on Ferroviaria SP x Vila Nova?

If you want to take a look at more options of betting websites, we, from the Clube, have listed our favorites for you. Right below you can check the best kenyan betting sites from 2025, carefully analysed by us. Pick yours and start betting now on Ferroviaria SP x Vila Nova:

Analysis from Ferroviaria SP x Vila Nova for the Brazil Serie B – 6 of July

When the best bet on Ferroviaria SP x Vila Nova is analysed, notice that our AI model is not interested in getting the right result, but instead in looking for situations where the bookies offer us a positive expected value.

To achieve that, the algorithm analyses more than 1348919 matches from our database seeking for patterns to get to the winning probabilities for the home team, a tie or a victory for the away team. That was the conclusion from our artificial intelligence:

Tips for the Match Odds market for Ferroviaria SP x Vila Nova

Should you bet on Ferroviaria SP?

🔵 Ferroviaria SP: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 43.56% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 2.25. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would have hit 440 times – having a profit of $550.00;
• And would have lost other 560 times – with a loss of -$560.00 because of them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$10.00.

Is it a good idea to bet on draw?

⚪ draw: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 34.96% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 2.80. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would have hit 350 times – having a profit of $630.00;
• And would have lost other 650 times – with a loss of -$650.00 because of them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$20.00.

Is it a good idea to bet on Vila Nova?

🔴 Vila Nova: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 21.48% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.45. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 210 times – this would give you a profit of $514.50
• And would have lost other 790 times – with a loss of -$790.00 because of them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$275.50.

Handicaps analysis for the match Ferroviaria SP x Vila Nova

Another important market to analyse is the Asian handicaps one, our algorithm is also going to help you with that. In case you do not know what handicaps are, we will solve this problem now: we sorted out the material about Asian handicap on betting so you can click and save it to learn about it on the first opportunity.

Take a look at what our artificial intelligence has set apart for these markets:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.25 Ferroviaria SP
⚽ Expected goals: 2.75 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Ferroviaria SP x Vila Nova

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be -0.25 Ferroviaria SP, and the current handicap offered by bookies is -0.25 Ferroviaria SP.

The handicap that our algorithm found is the same as the bookies, which means that there is not any value to bet on the Handicap 1×2 market.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Ferroviaria SP x Vila Nova

⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 2.75 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 1.75 goals.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 1.00, this means that the best bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 1.75 goals.