Fiorentina x NK Celje Betting tips for April 17 in UEFA Conference League

Our betting tip for Fiorentina x NK Celje, Thursday, 17/4/2025

📅 17/4/2025
16:45

Fiorentina
1.32

X
5.25

NK Celje

8.50

This is the bet from our artificial intelligence for Fiorentina x NK Celje:

🔮 Fiorentina wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Fiorentina, you can win up to $660.00!

Make this bet on Bet365 now!

Or access: https://www.bet365.com

The main points for the tip for Fiorentina x NK Celje:

👉 If you had bet $100 on Fiorentina in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a profit of $497.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on NK Celje in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a profit of $163.0.
👉 Fiorentina did not concede a goal in the last 3 matches as home team.
👉 In the last 4 matches as the away team, NK Celje scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 NK Celje is hard to beat as a visitor: it has 3 wins in a row in its last road matches.

Summary

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Analysis from Fiorentina x NK Celje for the UEFA Conference League – 17 of April

🏟️ Fiorentina X NK Celje – UEFA Conference League
📅 17 of April, 2025 – 16:45
🔵 Fiorentina – Winning probability: 93.63% | Fair line: 1.07
⚪ Tied game – Probability of tied match: 4.35% | Fair line: 22.99
🔴 NK Celje – Winning probability: 2.02% | Fair line: 49.59
⚖ Handicap 1×2: -1.75 Fiorentina
⚽ Expected goals: 3.50 goals
⛳ Expected corner kicks: 9.50 corner kicks

A good bettor is not the one with a high hits percentage, but the one who bets on positive expected value events. Our AI model knows it very well and has looked for these opportunities for the match between Fiorentina and NK Celje.

To achieve that, the algorithm analyses more than 1304980 matches from our database seeking for patterns to get to the winning probabilities for the home team, a tie or a victory for the away team. That was the conclusion from our artificial intelligence:

Tips for the Match Odds market for Fiorentina x NK Celje

Is it worth betting on Fiorentina?

🔵 Fiorentina: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 93.63% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 1.32. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

Would have hit 940 times – having a profit of $300.80;
And would lose other 60 times – losing -$60.00 with them.

So this is a value bet. After all, at the end of these bets, you would have an expected profit of 💰$240.80.

Is betting on draw worth it?

⚪ draw: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 4.35% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 5.25. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

Would hit 40 times – profiting $170.00;
And would have lost other 960 times – with a loss of -$960.00 because of them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$790.00.

Should you bet on NK Celje?

🔴 NK Celje: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 2.02% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 8.50. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

Would hit 20 times – profiting $150.00;
And would lose other 980 times – having a loss of -$980.00 with them.

That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$830.00.

Handicaps analysis for the match Fiorentina x NK Celje

Another important market to analyse is the Asian handicaps one, our algorithm is also going to help you with that. If you have no idea what a handicap is, do not worry! We have a complete article about the Asian handicap on sporting betting that will answer all your questions. You can click on it and leave it open on another tab so you can read later.

These are the handicaps that our algorithm analysed for you:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -1.75 Fiorentina
⚽ Expected goals: 3.50 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Fiorentina x NK Celje

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be -1.75 Fiorentina, and the current handicap offered by bookies is -1.5 Fiorentina.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is -0.25, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: -1.5 Fiorentina.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Fiorentina x NK Celje

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 3.50 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 3.00 goals.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.50, this means that the best bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 3.00 goals.