FK Zalgiris Vilnius x Banga Gargzdai Betting tips for March 15 in Lithuania A Lyga

Our betting tip for FK Zalgiris Vilnius x Banga Gargzdai, Saturday, 15/3/2025

📅 15/3/2025 15:00

FK Zalgiris Vilnius 1.29

X 4.85

Banga Gargzdai 8.00

This is the tip that our machine learning model has selected for FK Zalgiris Vilnius x Banga Gargzdai:

🔮 FK Zalgiris Vilnius wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on FK Zalgiris Vilnius, you can win up to $645.00!

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Some important points for the tip for FK Zalgiris Vilnius x Banga Gargzdai: 👉 If you had bet $100 on FK Zalgiris Vilnius in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-135.0. 👉 If you had bet $100 on Banga Gargzdai in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-500. 👉 In the last 5 matches as the home team, FK Zalgiris Vilnius scored at least 2 goal(s). 👉 In the last 5 matches as the home team against Banga Gargzdai, FK Zalgiris Vilnius scored at least 1 goal(s). 👉 In the last 5 FK Zalgiris Vilnius matches as the home team, it finished over 2.5 goals. 👉 In the last 4 head-to-head matches between FK Zalgiris Vilnius x Banga Gargzdai, with FK Zalgiris Vilnius as the home team, they finished over 2.5 goals. 👉 In the last 5 matches as the away team, Banga Gargzdai conceded at least 1 goal(s). 👉 Playing as the home team, FK Zalgiris Vilnius conceded at least 1 goal(s) in all the last 3 head-to-head against Banga Gargzdai. 👉 FK Zalgiris Vilnius is a team that likes ball possession. In its last 3 home matches, it had at least 60.00% of possession. 👉 FK Zalgiris Vilnius has not lost any of the last 5 head-to-head matches against Banga Gargzdai playing at home.

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Analysis from FK Zalgiris Vilnius x Banga Gargzdai for the Lithuania A Lyga – 15 of March

Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for FK Zalgiris Vilnius x Banga Gargzdai right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.

And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1281364 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:

Tips for the 1×2 market for FK Zalgiris Vilnius x Banga Gargzdai

Is it a good idea to bet on FK Zalgiris Vilnius?

🔵 FK Zalgiris Vilnius: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 90.63% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 1.29. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 910 times – having a profit of $263.90;
• And would lose other 90 times – losing -$90.00 with them.

So this is a value bet. After all, at the end of these bets, you would have an expected profit of 💰$173.90.

Is betting on draw worth it?

⚪ draw: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 6.82% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 4.85. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 70 times – having a profit of $269.50;
• And would lose other 930 times – having a loss of -$930.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$660.50.

Is it worth betting on Banga Gargzdai?

🔴 Banga Gargzdai: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 2.55% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 8.00. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 30 times – this would give you a profit of $210.00
• And would lose other 970 times – having a loss of -$970.00 with them.

We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$760.00.

Handicaps analysis for the match FK Zalgiris Vilnius x Banga Gargzdai

Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. If you have no idea what a handicap is, do not worry! We have a complete article about the Asian handicap on sporting betting that will answer all your questions. You can click on it and leave it open on another tab so you can read later.

Moving ahead we can see what the model has in store for these markets here:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -1.5 FK Zalgiris Vilnius
⚽ Expected goals: 3.25 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for FK Zalgiris Vilnius x Banga Gargzdai

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be -1.5 FK Zalgiris Vilnius, and the current handicap offered by bookies is -1.5 FK Zalgiris Vilnius.

The handicap that our algorithm found is the same as the bookies, which means that there is not any value to bet on the Handicap 1×2 market.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for FK Zalgiris Vilnius x Banga Gargzdai

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 3.25 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 3.00 goals.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 3.00 goals.