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Home Β» Predictions Β» Others Β» Foligno x Sangiovannese Betting tips for January 12 in Italy Serie D
Sunday, 12 January 2025, 13h30 Italy Serie D
Foligno Foligno
PREDICTION No tip
Sangiovannese Sangiovannese
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Foligno x Sangiovannese Betting tips for January 12 in Italy Serie D

Our betting tip for Foligno x Sangiovannese, Sunday, 12/1/2025
πŸ“… 12/1/2025
13:30
Foligno Foligno
1.60
X
3.60
Sangiovannese Sangiovannese
4.75

This is the bet made by our artificial intelligence for Foligno x Sangiovannese:

πŸ‘Ž Umm…too bad! We did not find any positive expected value bets for Foligno x Sangiovannese

The main points for the tip for Foligno x Sangiovannese:

πŸ‘‰ In the last 6 matches as the home team, Foligno scored at least 1 goal(s).
πŸ‘‰ In the last 5 matches as the home team against Sangiovannese, Foligno scored at least 1 goal(s).
πŸ‘‰ In the last 5 Foligno matches as the home team, it finished over 2.5 goals.
πŸ‘‰ In the last 5 head-to-head matches between Foligno x Sangiovannese, with Foligno as the home team, they finished over 2.5 goals.
πŸ‘‰ In the last 8 matches as the home team, Foligno conceded at least 1 goal(s).
πŸ‘‰ In the last 3 road matches, Sangiovannese has not lost any of them.
πŸ‘‰ Foligno has not lost any of the last 3 head-to-head matches against Sangiovannese playing at home.

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Summary

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Analysis from Foligno x Sangiovannese for the Italy Serie D – 12 of January

🏟️ Foligno X Sangiovannese – Italy Serie D
πŸ“… 12 of January, 2025 – 13:30
πŸ”΅ Foligno – Winning probability: 60.75% | Fair line: 1.65
βšͺ Tied game – Probability of tied match: 25.25% | Fair line: 3.96
πŸ”΄ Sangiovannese – Winning probability: 14.00% | Fair line: 7.14
βš– Handicap 1×2: -0.5 Foligno
⚽ Expected goals: 2.75 goals
β›³ Expected corner kicks: 9.75 corner kicks

When the best bet on Foligno x Sangiovannese is analysed, notice that our AI model is not interested in getting the right result, but instead in looking for situations where the bookies offer us a positive expected value.

Therefore, to find the numbers, our artificial intelligence has colected information from around 1244844 matches on our betting database, in order to calculate the probabilities of this match ending with a home team victory, a tied match or even an away team victory. Check out the results:

Tips for the 1×2 market for Foligno x Sangiovannese

Is it a good idea to bet on Foligno?

πŸ”΅ Foligno: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 60.75% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 1.60. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

  • Would hit 610 times – profiting $366.00;
  • And would have lost other 390 times – with a loss of -$390.00 because of them.

Even if it is a positive expected value bet, the expected profit is just πŸ’°$24.00 which is not worth the risk in our opinion.

Is it worth betting on draw?

βšͺ draw: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 25.25% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.60. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

  • Would hit 250 times – this would give you a profit of $650.00
  • And would lose other 750 times – losing -$750.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of πŸ’°-$100.00.

Is betting on Sangiovannese worth it?

πŸ”΄ Sangiovannese: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 14.0% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 4.75. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

  • Would hit 140 times – profiting $525.00;
  • And would lose other 860 times – having a loss of -$860.00 with them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of πŸ’°-$335.00.

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Handicaps analysis for the match Foligno x Sangiovannese

The handicap market is also very searched for by bettors in professional bookmakers and our model can help you with that. In case you do not know what handicaps are, we will solve this problem now: we sorted out the material about Asian handicap on betting so you can click and save it to learn about it on the first opportunity.

These are the handicaps that our algorithm analysed for you:

βš– Handicap 1×2: -0.5 Foligno
⚽ Expected goals: 2.75 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Foligno x Sangiovannese

βš– Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is -0.5 Foligno and the available handicap to bet at the moment is -0.75 Foligno.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.25, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: 0.75 Sangiovannese.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Foligno x Sangiovannese

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.75 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.25 goals.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.50. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.25 goals.

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Written by

Autor
Humberto Alves

Hi there! You can call me Beto! I'm 32 years old, graduated in Business Management and now I'm doing my second degree in Statistics and Data Science, which is really helpful to bring the Machine Learning models applied in sports betting that you see here. Even though I'm in this betting world since 2010, there's still a lot to be learned.

> Check other content created by Humberto Alves
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