📊 Check out the full analysis on Betfellows: Prognostic for Forest Green x Mansfield
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Analysis from Forest Green x Mansfield for the England League 2 – 18 of January
🏟️ Forest Green X Mansfield – England League 2
Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Forest Green x Mansfield right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.
And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 289715 matches on the database from our soccer prognostics platform, Betfellows, looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:
Tips for the 1×2 market for Forest Green x Mansfield
Should you bet on Forest Green?
🔵 Forest Green: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 59.03%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 1.75. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 590 times – this would give you a profit of $442.50
- And would lose other 410 times – having a loss of -$410.00 with them.
Even if it is a positive expected value bet, the expected profit is just 💰$32.50 which is not worth the risk in our opinion.
Is betting on draw worth it?
⚪ draw: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 24.14%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 3.60. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:
- Would hit 240 times – profiting $624.00;
- And would lose other 760 times – having a loss of -$760.00 with them.
That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$136.00.
Should you bet on Mansfield?
🔴 Mansfield: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 16.83% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 4.32. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would have hit 170 times – having a profit of $563.55;
- And would lose other 830 times – having a loss of -$830.00 with them.
So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$266.45.
Handicaps analysis for the match Forest Green x Mansfield
Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. Maybe you do not even know what this is. If handicap is a 7-headed monster for you, all you have to do is click on our article about Asian handicap on soccer betting and you will find a complete material to quickly teach you how it works. Click on it and leave it open on another tab to read later..
Take a look at what our artificial intelligence has set apart for these markets:
⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.25 Forest Green
⚽ Expected goals: 2.50 goals
Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Forest Green x Mansfield
⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be -0.25 Forest Green, and the current handicap offered by bookies is -0.75 Forest Green.
Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.50, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: 0.75 Mansfield.
Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Forest Green x Mansfield
⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 2.50 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.50 goals. As the handicap available on the market is the same as that indicated by our robot, we will do nothing since there is not value bets on the Goals Handicap market.
Our tips are also on YouTube
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Hi there! You can call me Beto! I'm 32 years old, graduated in Business Management and now I'm doing my second degree in Statistics and Data Science, which is really helpful to bring the Machine Learning models applied in sports betting that you see here. Even though I'm in this betting world since 2010, there's still a lot to be learned.> Check other content created by Humberto Alves