📊 Check out the analysis from this match on Betfellows: Complete prognostic for Fulham x Birmingham
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Analysis from Fulham x Birmingham for the England Championship – 26 of December
🏟️ Fulham X Birmingham – England Championship
Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Fulham x Birminghamright, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.
And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 281997 matches on the database from our soccer prognostics platform, Betfellows, looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:
Tips for the 1×2 market for Fulham x Birmingham
Is it worth betting on Fulham?
🔵 Fulham: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 85.66% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 1.48. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would have hit 860 times – having a profit of $408.50;
- And would lose other 140 times – having a loss of -$140.00 with them.
So this is a value bet. After all, at the end of these bets, you would have an expected profit of 💰$268.50.
Should you bet on draw?
⚪ draw: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 8.67% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 4.25. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 90 times – profiting $292.05;
- And would have lost other 910 times – with a loss of -$910.00 because of them.
So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$617.95.
Is it a good idea to bet on Birmingham?
🔴 Birmingham: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 5.68% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 6.30. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:
- Would hit 60 times – profiting $318.00;
- And would lose other 940 times – losing -$940.00 with them.
So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$622.00.
Handicaps analysis for the match Fulham x Birmingham
Another important market to analyse is the Asian handicaps one, our algorithm is also going to help you with that. In case you do not know what handicaps are, we will solve this problem now: we sorted out the material about Asian handicap on betting so you can click and save it to learn about it on the first opportunity.
These are the handicaps that our algorithm analysed for you:
⚖ Handicap 1×2: -1.5 Fulham
⚽ Expected goals: 2.50 goals
Tips for the market Handicap 1×2 for Fulham x Birmingham
⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is -1.5 Fulham and the available handicap to bet at that moment is -1.0 Fulham.
Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is -0.50, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: -1.0 Fulham.
Tips for the market Goals Handicap for Fulham x Birmingham
⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 2.50 goals and the available handicap to bet at that moment is 2.50 goals.
The handicap that our algorithm found is the same as the bookies, which means that there is not any value to bet on the Goals Handicapmarket.
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Hi there! You can call me Beto! I'm 32 years old, graduated in Business Management and now I'm doing my second degree in Statistics and Data Science, which is really helpful to bring the Machine Learning models applied in sports betting that you see here. Even though I'm in this betting world since 2010, there's still a lot to be learned.> Check other content created by Humberto Alves