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Home » Predictions » Others » Guarani x EC Agua Santa Betting tips for February 6 in Brazil Campeonato Paulista
Thursday, 06 February 2025, 22h30 Brazil Campeonato Paulista
Guarani Guarani
PREDICTION Guarani wins Probability 61% 1 X 2
EC Agua Santa EC Agua Santa
ODD: @1.89 Don't miss this prediction!

Guarani x EC Agua Santa Betting tips for February 6 in Brazil Campeonato Paulista

Our betting tip for Guarani x EC Agua Santa, Thursday, 6/2/2025
📅 6/2/2025
22:30
Guarani Guarani
1.89
X
3.18
EC Agua Santa EC Agua Santa
3.99

This is the bet made by our artificial intelligence for Guarani x EC Agua Santa:

🔮 Guarani wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Guarani, you can win up to $945.00!

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The main points for the tip for Guarani x EC Agua Santa:

👉 If you had bet $100 on Guarani in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-75.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on EC Agua Santa in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-500.
👉 In the last 3 matches as the home team, Guarani scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 5 matches as the away team, EC Agua Santa conceded at least 1 goal(s).

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Summary

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Analysis from Guarani x EC Agua Santa for the Brazil Campeonato Paulista – 6 of February

🏟️ Guarani X EC Agua Santa – Brazil Campeonato Paulista
📅 6 of February, 2025 – 22:30
🔵 Guarani – Winning probability: 61.70% | Fair line: 1.62
Tied game – Probability of tied match: 20.80% | Fair line: 4.81
🔴 EC Agua Santa – Winning probability: 17.50% | Fair line: 5.72
⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.75 Guarani
⚽ Expected goals: 2.50 goals
⛳ Expected corner kicks: 9.75 corner kicks

When the best bet on Guarani x EC Agua Santa is analysed, notice that our AI model is not interested in getting the right result, but instead in looking for situations where the bookies offer us a positive expected value.

And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1258216 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:

Tips for the 1×2 market for Guarani x EC Agua Santa

Is betting on Guarani worth it?

🔵 Guarani: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 61.7% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 1.89. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

  • Would have hit 620 times – having a profit of $551.80;
  • And would lose other 380 times – having a loss of -$380.00 with them.

That is why this is a value bet. In the end, you would have had a final profit of 💰$171.80.

Should you bet on draw?

draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 20.8% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.18. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

  • Would hit 210 times – profiting $457.80;
  • And would have lost other 790 times – with a loss of -$790.00 because of them.

We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$332.20.

Should you bet on EC Agua Santa?

🔴 EC Agua Santa: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 17.5%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 3.99. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

  • Would hit 170 times – this would give you a profit of $508.30
  • And would lose other 830 times – having a loss of -$830.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$321.70.

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Handicaps analysis for the match Guarani x EC Agua Santa

Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. Maybe you do not even know what this is. If handicap is a 7-headed monster for you, all you have to do is click on our article about Asian handicap on football betting and you will find a complete material to quickly teach you how it works. Click on it and leave it open on another tab to read later..

Take a look at what our artificial intelligence has set apart for these markets:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.75 Guarani
⚽ Expected goals: 2.50 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Guarani x EC Agua Santa

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be -0.75 Guarani, and the current handicap offered by bookies is -0.5 Guarani.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is -0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: -0.5 Guarani.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Guarani x EC Agua Santa

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.50 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.25 goals.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.25 goals.

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Written by
Autor
Humberto Alves

Hi there! You can call me Beto! I'm 32 years old, graduated in Business Management and now I'm doing my second degree in Statistics and Data Science, which is really helpful to bring the Machine Learning models applied in sports betting that you see here. Even though I'm in this betting world since 2010, there's still a lot to be learned.

> Check other content created by Humberto Alves
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