Guarda Desportiva x FC Alpendorada Betting tips for March 9 in Portugal Campeonato Nacional

Our betting tip for Guarda Desportiva x FC Alpendorada, Sunday, 9/3/2025

📅 9/3/2025 15:00

Guarda Desportiva 1.82

X 3.10

FC Alpendorada 4.20

This is the tip that our machine learning model has selected for Guarda Desportiva x FC Alpendorada:

👎 Unfortunately, we did not find any positive expected value bets for Guarda Desportiva x FC Alpendorada

Important information for your tip for Guarda Desportiva x FC Alpendorada: 👉 If you had bet $100 on Guarda Desportiva in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-100.0. 👉 If you had bet $100 on FC Alpendorada in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-190.0. 👉 FC Alpendorada did not score any goals in the last 3 matches as away team. 👉 In the last 6 FC Alpendorada matches as the away team, it finished under 2.5 goals.

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Analysis from Guarda Desportiva x FC Alpendorada for the Portugal Campeonato Nacional – 9 of March

A good bettor is not the one with a high hits percentage, but the one who bets on positive expected value events. Our AI model knows it very well and has looked for these opportunities for the match between Guarda Desportiva and FC Alpendorada.

And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1277138 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:

Tips for the Match Odds market for Guarda Desportiva x FC Alpendorada

Is betting on Guarda Desportiva worth it?

🔵 Guarda Desportiva: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 53.71% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 1.82. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 540 times – profiting $442.80;
• And would lose other 460 times – having a loss of -$460.00 with them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$17.20.

Is it a good idea to bet on draw?

⚪ draw: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 31.81% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.10. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 320 times – profiting $672.00;
• And would lose other 680 times – having a loss of -$680.00 with them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$8.00.

Is it a good idea to bet on FC Alpendorada?

🔴 FC Alpendorada: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 14.48% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 4.20. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 140 times – profiting $448.00;
• And would lose other 860 times – having a loss of -$860.00 with them.

We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$412.00.

Handicaps analysis for the match Guarda Desportiva x FC Alpendorada

Another important market to analyse is the Asian handicaps one, our algorithm is also going to help you with that. If you have no idea what a handicap is, do not worry! We have a complete article about the Asian handicap on sporting betting that will answer all your questions. You can click on it and leave it open on another tab so you can read later.

Take a look at what our artificial intelligence has set apart for these markets:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -1.0 Guarda Desportiva
⚽ Expected goals: 2.25 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Guarda Desportiva x FC Alpendorada

⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is -1.0 Guarda Desportiva and the available handicap to bet at the moment is -0.5 Guarda Desportiva.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is -0.50, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: -0.5 Guarda Desportiva.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Guarda Desportiva x FC Alpendorada

⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 2.25 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.00 goals.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.25, this means that the best bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.00 goals.