Guingamp x Caen Betting tips for September 30 in France Ligue 2

Our betting tip for Guingamp x Caen, Monday, 30/9/2024

📅 30/9/2024 15:45

Guingamp 2.01

X 3.25

Caen 3.58

This is the bet from our artificial intelligence for Guingamp x Caen:

🔮 Guingamp wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Guingamp, you can win up to $1005.00!

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Important information for your tip for Guingamp x Caen: 👉 If you had bet $100 on Guingamp in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a profit of $175.0. 👉 If you had bet $100 on Caen in each of its last 4 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-400. 👉 In the last 6 matches as the home team, Guingamp scored at least 1 goal(s). 👉 In the last 5 matches as the home team against Caen, Guingamp scored at least 1 goal(s). 👉 In the last 3 Guingamp matches as the home team, it finished over 2.5 goals. 👉 In the last 4 matches as the away team, Caen conceded at least 1 goal(s). 👉 It is not a good time for Caen as away team: it comes from 3 losses in a row in its last away matches.

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Analysis from Guingamp x Caen for the France Ligue 2 – 30 of September

When the best bet on Guingamp x Caen is analysed, notice that our AI model is not interested in getting the right result, but instead in looking for situations where the bookies offer us a positive expected value.

To achieve that, the algorithm analyses more than 1191189 matches from our database seeking for patterns to get to the winning probabilities for the home team, a tie or a victory for the away team. That was the conclusion from our artificial intelligence:

Tips for the Match Odds market for Guingamp x Caen

Is it worth betting on Guingamp?

🔵 Guingamp: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 52.71% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 2.01. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 530 times – having a profit of $535.30;
• And would lose other 470 times – losing -$470.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, this is a value bet because you would have an expected final profit of 💰$65.30.

Is it a good idea to bet on draw?

⚪ draw: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 25.28%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 3.25. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 250 times – this would give you a profit of $562.50
• And would have lost other 750 times – with a loss of -$750.00 because of them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$187.50.

Is betting on Caen worth it?

🔴 Caen: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 22.02% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.58. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 220 times – this would give you a profit of $567.60
• And would lose other 780 times – having a loss of -$780.00 with them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$212.40.

Handicaps analysis for the match Guingamp x Caen

Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. In case you do not know what handicaps are, we will solve this problem now: we sorted out the material about Asian handicap on betting so you can click and save it to learn about it on the first opportunity.

Moving ahead we can see what the model has in store for these markets here:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.75 Guingamp
⚽ Expected goals: 3.00 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Guingamp x Caen

⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is -0.75 Guingamp and the available handicap to bet at the moment is -0.5 Guingamp.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is -0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: -0.5 Guingamp.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Guingamp x Caen

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 3.00 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.25 goals.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.75. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.25 goals.