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Home » Predictions » Others » Hearts x Kilmarnock Betting tips for October 30 in Scotland Premiership
Wednesday, 30 October 2024, 19h45 Scotland Premiership
Hearts Hearts
PREDICTION Hearts wins Probability 56% 1 X 2
Kilmarnock Kilmarnock
ODD: @1.85 Don't miss this prediction!

Hearts x Kilmarnock Betting tips for October 30 in Scotland Premiership

Our betting tip for Hearts x Kilmarnock, Wednesday, 30/10/2024
📅 30/10/2024
19:45
Hearts Hearts
1.85
X
3.63
Kilmarnock Kilmarnock
3.90

This is the tip that our machine learning model has selected for Hearts x Kilmarnock:

🔮 Hearts wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Hearts, you can win up to $925.00!

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The main points for the tip for Hearts x Kilmarnock:

👉 If you had bet $100 on Hearts in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-72.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Kilmarnock in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-210.0.
👉 In the last 3 matches as the home team, Hearts scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 3 matches as the away team, Kilmarnock scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 3 Kilmarnock matches as the away team, it finished over 2.5 goals.
👉 In the last 6 matches as the away team, Kilmarnock conceded at least 1 goal(s).
👉 Hearts has not lost any of the last 3 head-to-head matches against Kilmarnock playing at home.

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Summary

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Analysis from Hearts x Kilmarnock for the Scotland Premiership – 30 of October

🏟️ Hearts X Kilmarnock – Scotland Premiership
📅 30 of October, 2024 – 19:45
🔵 Hearts – Winning probability: 56.43% | Fair line: 1.77
Tied game – Probability of tied match: 24.25% | Fair line: 4.12
🔴 Kilmarnock – Winning probability: 19.33% | Fair line: 5.17
⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.5 Hearts
⚽ Expected goals: 2.50 goals
⛳ Expected corner kicks: 10.00 corner kicks

A good bettor is not the one with a high hits percentage, but the one who bets on positive expected value events. Our AI model knows it very well and has looked for these opportunities for the match between Hearts and Kilmarnock.

And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1212778 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:

Tips for the Match Odds market for Hearts x Kilmarnock

Is it a good idea to bet on Hearts?

🔵 Hearts: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 56.43% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 1.85. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

  • Would hit 560 times – this would give you a profit of $476.00
  • And would lose other 440 times – losing -$440.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, this is a value bet because you would have an expected final profit of 💰$36.00.

Should you bet on draw?

draw: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 24.25%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 3.63. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

  • Would have hit 240 times – having a profit of $631.20;
  • And would lose other 760 times – losing -$760.00 with them.

That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$128.80.

Is it worth betting on Kilmarnock?

🔴 Kilmarnock: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 19.33%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 3.90. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

  • Would hit 190 times – this would give you a profit of $551.00
  • And would lose other 810 times – losing -$810.00 with them.

That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$259.00.

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Handicaps analysis for the match Hearts x Kilmarnock

Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. In case you do not know what handicaps are, we will solve this problem now: we sorted out the material about Asian handicap on betting so you can click and save it to learn about it on the first opportunity.

Moving ahead we can see what the model has in store for these markets here:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.5 Hearts
⚽ Expected goals: 2.50 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Hearts x Kilmarnock

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be -0.5 Hearts, and the current handicap offered by bookies is -0.5 Hearts.

Since there is not big differences between the handicap offered by bookies and the one suggested by our algorithm, we can consider that there is no value to bet on the Handicap 1×2 market.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Hearts x Kilmarnock

⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 2.50 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.75 goals.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is -0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: – 2.75 goals.

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Written by

Autor
Humberto Alves

Hi there! You can call me Beto! I'm 32 years old, graduated in Business Management and now I'm doing my second degree in Statistics and Data Science, which is really helpful to bring the Machine Learning models applied in sports betting that you see here. Even though I'm in this betting world since 2010, there's still a lot to be learned.

> Check other content created by Humberto Alves
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