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Home Β» Predictions Β» Others Β» Hercilio Luz x Avai Betting tips for February 5 in Brazil Campeonato Catarinense
Wednesday, 05 February 2025, 23h30 Brazil Campeonato Catarinense
Hercilio Luz Hercilio Luz
PREDICTION No tip
Avai Avai
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Hercilio Luz x Avai Betting tips for February 5 in Brazil Campeonato Catarinense

Our betting tip for Hercilio Luz x Avai, Wednesday, 5/2/2025
πŸ“… 5/2/2025
23:30
Hercilio Luz Hercilio Luz
3.10
X
3.00
Avai Avai
2.21

Our algorithm has selected this tip for Hercilio Luz x Avai:

πŸ‘Ž Unfortunately, we do not have any positive expected value tips for Hercilio Luz x Avai

Some important points for the tip for Hercilio Luz x Avai:

πŸ‘‰ If you had bet $100 on Hercilio Luz in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a profit of $17.0.
πŸ‘‰ If you had bet $100 on Avai in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-190.0.
πŸ‘‰ Avai did not concede a goal in the last 3 matches as away team.
πŸ‘‰ Avai did not score any goals in the last 3 matches as away team.
πŸ‘‰ In the last 4 matches as the home team against Avai, Hercilio Luz scored at least 1 goal(s).
πŸ‘‰ In the last 3 Avai matches as the away team, it finished under 2.5 goals.
πŸ‘‰ In the last 3 matches as the home team, Hercilio Luz conceded at least 1 goal(s).
πŸ‘‰ In the last 4 road matches, Avai has not lost any of them.
πŸ‘‰ Hercilio Luz has won all the last 4 matches playing at home against Avai.

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Summary

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Analysis from Hercilio Luz x Avai for the Brazil Campeonato Catarinense – 5 of February

🏟️ Hercilio Luz X Avai – Brazil Campeonato Catarinense
πŸ“… 5 of February, 2025 – 23:30
πŸ”΅ Hercilio Luz – Winning probability: 29.62% | Fair line: 3.38
βšͺ Tied game – Probability of tied match: 22.88% | Fair line: 4.37
πŸ”΄ Avai – Winning probability: 47.51% | Fair line: 2.11
βš– Handicap 1×2: +0.25 Hercilio Luz
⚽ Expected goals: 2.50 goals
β›³ Expected corner kicks: 9.50 corner kicks

Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Hercilio Luz x Avai right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.

To achieve that, the algorithm analyses more than 1257906 matches from our database seeking for patterns to get to the winning probabilities for the home team, a tie or a victory for the away team. That was the conclusion from our artificial intelligence:

Tips for the 1×2 market for Hercilio Luz x Avai

Is betting on Hercilio Luz worth it?

πŸ”΅ Hercilio Luz: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 29.62% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.10. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

  • Would hit 300 times – profiting $630.00;
  • And would lose other 700 times – having a loss of -$700.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of πŸ’°-$70.00.

Is betting on draw worth it?

βšͺ draw: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 22.88% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.00. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

  • Would have hit 230 times – having a profit of $460.00;
  • And would have lost other 770 times – with a loss of -$770.00 because of them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of πŸ’°-$310.00.

Is it a good idea to bet on Avai?

πŸ”΄ Avai: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 47.51% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 2.21. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

  • Would hit 480 times – profiting $580.80;
  • And would lose other 520 times – losing -$520.00 with them.

We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of πŸ’°-$60.80.

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Handicaps analysis for the match Hercilio Luz x Avai

The handicap market is also very searched for by bettors in professional bookmakers and our model can help you with that. In case you do not know what handicaps are, we will solve this problem now: we sorted out the material about Asian handicap on betting so you can click and save it to learn about it on the first opportunity.

These are the handicaps that our algorithm analysed for you:

βš– Handicap 1×2: +0.25 Hercilio Luz
⚽ Expected goals: 2.50 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Hercilio Luz x Avai

βš– Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is +0.25 Hercilio Luz and the available handicap to bet at the moment is +0.25 Hercilio Luz.

Since the handicap offered by bookmakers is the same as the one we got with our model, there is not any value bets on the Handicap 1×2 market.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Hercilio Luz x Avai

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.50 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 1.75 goals.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.75, this means that the best bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 1.75 goals.

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Written by

Autor
Humberto Alves

Hi there! You can call me Beto! I'm 32 years old, graduated in Business Management and now I'm doing my second degree in Statistics and Data Science, which is really helpful to bring the Machine Learning models applied in sports betting that you see here. Even though I'm in this betting world since 2010, there's still a lot to be learned.

> Check other content created by Humberto Alves
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