IFK Trelleborg x FBK Balkan Betting tips for September 30 in Sweden 2.div Södra Götaland

Our betting tip for IFK Trelleborg x FBK Balkan, Monday, 30/9/2024

📅 30/9/2024 14:00

IFK Trelleborg 1.91

X 3.87

FBK Balkan 3.20

This is the tip that our machine learning model has selected for IFK Trelleborg x FBK Balkan:

👎 Umm…too bad! We did not find any positive expected value bets for IFK Trelleborg x FBK Balkan

Some important points for the tip for IFK Trelleborg x FBK Balkan: 👉 If you had bet $100 on IFK Trelleborg in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-170.0. 👉 If you had bet $100 on FBK Balkan in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-275.0. 👉 In the last 6 matches as the home team, IFK Trelleborg scored at least 1 goal(s). 👉 In the last 3 matches as the home team against FBK Balkan, IFK Trelleborg scored at least 1 goal(s). 👉 In the last 6 matches as the home team, IFK Trelleborg conceded at least 1 goal(s). 👉 Playing as the home team, IFK Trelleborg conceded at least 1 goal(s) in all the last 3 head-to-head against FBK Balkan. 👉 IFK Trelleborg has not lost any of the last 3 head-to-head matches against FBK Balkan playing at home.

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Analysis from IFK Trelleborg x FBK Balkan for the Sweden 2.div Södra Götaland – 30 of September

Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for IFK Trelleborg x FBK Balkan right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.

And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1191189 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:

Tips for the Match Odds market for IFK Trelleborg x FBK Balkan

Is betting on IFK Trelleborg worth it?

🔵 IFK Trelleborg: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 53.89% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 1.91. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 540 times – this would give you a profit of $491.40
• And would have lost other 460 times – with a loss of -$460.00 because of them.

Although this bet has some value, notice that the expected profit is just 💰$31.40, which is not worth the risk in our point of view.

Is betting on draw worth it?

⚪ draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 21.08% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.87. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 210 times – this would give you a profit of $602.70
• And would lose other 790 times – having a loss of -$790.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$187.30.

Should you bet on FBK Balkan?

🔴 FBK Balkan: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 25.03% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.20. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 250 times – profiting $550.00;
• And would lose other 750 times – losing -$750.00 with them.

We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$200.00.

Handicaps analysis for the match IFK Trelleborg x FBK Balkan

The handicap market is also very searched for by bettors in professional bookmakers and our model can help you with that. In case you do not know what handicaps are, we will solve this problem now: we sorted out the material about Asian handicap on betting so you can click and save it to learn about it on the first opportunity.

This is what our nice robot has to tell us about these markets:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -1.0 IFK Trelleborg
⚽ Expected goals: 3.00 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for IFK Trelleborg x FBK Balkan

⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is -1.0 IFK Trelleborg and the available handicap to bet at the moment is -0.5 IFK Trelleborg.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is -0.50. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: -0.5 IFK Trelleborg.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for IFK Trelleborg x FBK Balkan

⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 3.00 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 3.00 goals.

Since the handicap offered by bookmakers is the same as the one we got with our model, there is not any value bets on the Goals Handicap market.