📊 Check out the analysis from this match on Betfellows: Complete prognostic for Ilkeston x Ashton Utd
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Analysis from Ilkeston x Ashton Utd for the England Northern Premier League – 21 of November
🏟️ Ilkeston X Ashton Utd – England Northern Premier League
Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Ilkeston x Ashton Utd right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.
And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1024310 matches on the database from our soccer prognostics platform, Betfellows, looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:
Tips for the 1×2 market for Ilkeston x Ashton Utd
Is betting on Ilkeston worth it?
🔵 Ilkeston: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 44.68% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 2.10. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 450 times – this would give you a profit of $495.00
- And would lose other 550 times – losing -$550.00 with them.
So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$55.00.
Is it a good idea to bet on draw?
⚪ draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 19.52% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.55. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 200 times – this would give you a profit of $510.00
- And would lose other 800 times – having a loss of -$800.00 with them.
That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$290.00.
Is betting on Ashton Utd worth it?
🔴 Ashton Utd: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 35.8%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 2.87. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 360 times – this would give you a profit of $673.20
- And would lose other 640 times – having a loss of -$640.00 with them.
It is a low stake bet, since after all you would have an final expected profit of just 💰$33.20. Which is not even that worthy considering the risk!
Handicaps analysis for the match Ilkeston x Ashton Utd
Another important market to analyse is the Asian handicaps one, our algorithm is also going to help you with that. Maybe you do not even know what this is. If handicap is a 7-headed monster for you, all you have to do is click on our article about Asian handicap on soccer betting and you will find a complete material to quickly teach you how it works. Click on it and leave it open on another tab to read later..
Take a look at what our artificial intelligence has set apart for these markets:
⚖ Handicap 1×2: 0.0 Ilkeston
⚽ Expected goals: 3.50 goals
Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Ilkeston x Ashton Utd
⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 0.0 Ilkeston, and the current handicap offered by bookies is -0.25 Ilkeston.
We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: 0.25 Ashton Utd.
Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Ilkeston x Ashton Utd
⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 3.50 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 3.00 goals.
We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.50. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 3.00 goals.
Hi there! You can call me Beto! I'm 32 years old, graduated in Business Management and now I'm doing my second degree in Statistics and Data Science, which is really helpful to bring the Machine Learning models applied in sports betting that you see here. Even though I'm in this betting world since 2010, there's still a lot to be learned.> Check other content created by Humberto Alves