Independiente del Valle x Barcelona Guayaquil Betting tips for July 6 in Ecuador LigaPro Serie A
| 📅 6/7/2025 00:00 |
 Independiente del Valle1.65 |
X 3.65 |
Barcelona Guayaquil  4.60 |
Our algorithm has selected this tip for Independiente del Valle x Barcelona Guayaquil:
🔮 Independiente del Valle wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Independiente del Valle, you can win up to $825.00!
Some important points for the tip for Independiente del Valle x Barcelona Guayaquil:
👉 If you had bet $100 on Independiente del Valle in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-190.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Barcelona Guayaquil in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-180.0.
👉 In the last 6 matches as the home team, Independiente del Valle scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 5 matches as the home team against Barcelona Guayaquil, Independiente del Valle scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 5 matches as the home team, Independiente del Valle conceded at least 1 goal(s).
👉 Independiente del Valle has not lost any of the last 5 head-to-head matches against Barcelona Guayaquil playing at home.
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Analysis from Independiente del Valle x Barcelona Guayaquil for the Ecuador LigaPro Serie A – 6 of July
🏟️ Independiente del Valle X Barcelona Guayaquil – Ecuador LigaPro Serie A
📅 6 of July, 2025 – 00:00
🔵 Independiente del Valle – Winning probability: 81.19% | Fair line: 1.23
⚪ Tied game – Probability of tied match: 12.16% | Fair line: 8.22
🔴 Barcelona Guayaquil – Winning probability: 6.66% | Fair line: 15.03
⚖ Handicap 1×2: -1.0 Independiente del Valle
⚽ Expected goals: 2.75 goals
⛳ Expected corner kicks: 9.75 corner kicks
Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Independiente del Valle x Barcelona Guayaquil right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.
And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1348834 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:
Tips for the Match Odds market for Independiente del Valle x Barcelona Guayaquil
Is it worth betting on Independiente del Valle?
🔵 Independiente del Valle: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 81.19%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 1.65. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 810 times – this would give you a profit of $526.50
- And would lose other 190 times – losing -$190.00 with them.
It is a value bet, since after all you would have an expected final profit of 💰$336.50.
Should you bet on draw?
⚪ draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 12.16% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.65. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 120 times – profiting $318.00;
- And would lose other 880 times – losing -$880.00 with them.
Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$562.00.
Should you bet on Barcelona Guayaquil?
🔴 Barcelona Guayaquil: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 6.66%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 4.60. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:
- Would hit 70 times – this would give you a profit of $252.00
- And would lose other 930 times – having a loss of -$930.00 with them.
So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$678.00.
Handicaps analysis for the match Independiente del Valle x Barcelona Guayaquil
Another important market to analyse is the Asian handicaps one, our algorithm is also going to help you with that. Maybe you do not even know what this is. If handicap is a 7-headed monster for you, all you have to do is click on our article about Asian handicap on football betting and you will find a complete material to quickly teach you how it works. Click on it and leave it open on another tab to read later..
Take a look at what our artificial intelligence has set apart for these markets:
⚖ Handicap 1×2: -1.0 Independiente del Valle
⚽ Expected goals: 2.75 goals
Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Independiente del Valle x Barcelona Guayaquil
⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be -1.0 Independiente del Valle, and the current handicap offered by bookies is -0.75 Independiente del Valle.
We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is -0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: -0.75 Independiente del Valle.
Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Independiente del Valle x Barcelona Guayaquil
⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.75 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.75 goals.
Since there is not big differences between the handicap offered by bookies and the one suggested by our algorithm, we can consider that there is no value to bet on the Goals Handicap market.
