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Home » Predictions » Others » Itapirense x Sertaozinho FC Betting tips for February 5 in Brazil Campeonato Paulista A3
Wednesday, 05 February 2025, 22h00 Brazil Campeonato Paulista A3
Itapirense Itapirense
PREDICTION Draw Match Probability 36% 1 X 2
Sertaozinho FC Sertaozinho FC
ODD: @2.88 Don't miss this prediction!

Itapirense x Sertaozinho FC Betting tips for February 5 in Brazil Campeonato Paulista A3

Our betting tip for Itapirense x Sertaozinho FC, Wednesday, 5/2/2025
📅 5/2/2025
22:00
Itapirense Itapirense
2.60
X
2.88
Sertaozinho FC Sertaozinho FC
2.62

This is the bet made by our artificial intelligence for Itapirense x Sertaozinho FC:

🔮 Tied Match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on a tie, you can win up to $1440.00!

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The main points for the tip for Itapirense x Sertaozinho FC:

👉 If you had bet $100 on Itapirense in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-383.0.
👉 In the last 7 Sertaozinho FC matches as the away team, it finished under 2.5 goals.
👉 In the last 4 matches as the home team, Itapirense conceded at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 5 road matches, Sertaozinho FC has not lost any of them.

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Summary

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Analysis from Itapirense x Sertaozinho FC for the Brazil Campeonato Paulista A3 – 5 of February

🏟️ Itapirense X Sertaozinho FC – Brazil Campeonato Paulista A3
📅 5 of February, 2025 – 22:00
🔵 Itapirense – Winning probability: 29.70% | Fair line: 3.37
Tied game – Probability of tied match: 36.93% | Fair line: 2.71
🔴 Sertaozinho FC – Winning probability: 33.37% | Fair line: 3.0
⚖ Handicap 1×2: 0.0 Itapirense
⚽ Expected goals: 2.25 goals
⛳ Expected corner kicks: 9.50 corner kicks

Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Itapirense x Sertaozinho FC right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.

To achieve that, the algorithm analyses more than 1257906 matches from our database seeking for patterns to get to the winning probabilities for the home team, a tie or a victory for the away team. That was the conclusion from our artificial intelligence:

Tips for the 1×2 market for Itapirense x Sertaozinho FC

Is it a good idea to bet on Itapirense?

🔵 Itapirense: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 29.7% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 2.60. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

  • Would hit 300 times – this would give you a profit of $480.00
  • And would have lost other 700 times – with a loss of -$700.00 because of them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$220.00.

Is it a good idea to bet on draw?

draw: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 36.93%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 2.88. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

  • Would have hit 370 times – having a profit of $695.60;
  • And would have lost other 630 times – with a loss of -$630.00 because of them.

So this is a value bet. After all, at the end of these bets, you would have an expected profit of 💰$65.60.

Should you bet on Sertaozinho FC?

🔴 Sertaozinho FC: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 33.37% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 2.62. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

  • Would have hit 330 times – having a profit of $534.60;
  • And would lose other 670 times – losing -$670.00 with them.

That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$135.40.

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Handicaps analysis for the match Itapirense x Sertaozinho FC

Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. Maybe you do not even know what this is. If handicap is a 7-headed monster for you, all you have to do is click on our article about Asian handicap on football betting and you will find a complete material to quickly teach you how it works. Click on it and leave it open on another tab to read later..

Moving ahead we can see what the model has in store for these markets here:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: 0.0 Itapirense
⚽ Expected goals: 2.25 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Itapirense x Sertaozinho FC

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 0.0 Itapirense, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 0.0 Itapirense.

Since the handicap offered by bookmakers is the same as the one we got with our model, there is not any value bets on the Handicap 1×2 market.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Itapirense x Sertaozinho FC

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.25 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 1.75 goals.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.50, this means that the best bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 1.75 goals.

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Written by
Autor
Humberto Alves

Hi there! You can call me Beto! I'm 32 years old, graduated in Business Management and now I'm doing my second degree in Statistics and Data Science, which is really helpful to bring the Machine Learning models applied in sports betting that you see here. Even though I'm in this betting world since 2010, there's still a lot to be learned.

> Check other content created by Humberto Alves
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