Joinville x Marcilio Dias Betting tips for September 29 in Brazil Copa Santa Catarina

Our betting tip for Joinville x Marcilio Dias, Sunday, 29/9/2024

📅 29/9/2024 16:00

Joinville 2.20

X 3.10

Marcilio Dias 2.95

This is the bet from our artificial intelligence for Joinville x Marcilio Dias:

🔮 Joinville wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Joinville, you can win up to $1100.00!

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Or access: https://www.bet365.com 

The main points for the tip for Joinville x Marcilio Dias: 👉 If you had bet $100 on Joinville in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-500. 👉 If you had bet $100 on Marcilio Dias in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-225.0. 👉 In the last 4 matches as the away team, Marcilio Dias scored at least 1 goal(s). 👉 In the last 3 Joinville matches as the home team, it finished under 2.5 goals. 👉 In the last 3 matches as the away team, Marcilio Dias conceded at least 1 goal(s).

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Analysis from Joinville x Marcilio Dias for the Brazil Copa Santa Catarina – 29 of September

Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Joinville x Marcilio Dias right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.

And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1190630 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:

Tips for the 1×2 market for Joinville x Marcilio Dias

Is it a good idea to bet on Joinville?

🔵 Joinville: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 48.24%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 2.20. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 480 times – this would give you a profit of $576.00
• And would lose other 520 times – losing -$520.00 with them.

It is a value bet, since after all you would have an expected final profit of 💰$56.00.

Is betting on draw worth it?

⚪ draw: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 26.44%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 3.10. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 260 times – this would give you a profit of $546.00
• And would lose other 740 times – losing -$740.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$194.00.

Is it a good idea to bet on Marcilio Dias?

🔴 Marcilio Dias: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 25.32%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 2.95. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 250 times – profiting $487.50;
• And would lose other 750 times – losing -$750.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$262.50.

Handicaps analysis for the match Joinville x Marcilio Dias

Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. In case you do not know what handicaps are, we will solve this problem now: we sorted out the material about Asian handicap on betting so you can click and save it to learn about it on the first opportunity.

Moving ahead we can see what the model has in store for these markets here:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.5 Joinville
⚽ Expected goals: 2.50 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Joinville x Marcilio Dias

⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is -0.5 Joinville and the available handicap to bet at the moment is -0.25 Joinville.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is -0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: -0.25 Joinville.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Joinville x Marcilio Dias

⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 2.50 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.25 goals.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.25 goals.