📊 Check out the analysis on Betfellows for this match: Full prognostic for Leioa x Aurrera Ondarroa
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Analysis from Leioa x Aurrera Ondarroa for the Spain Tercera Group 4 – 15 of January
🏟️ Leioa X Aurrera Ondarroa – Spain Tercera Group 4
When the best bet on Leioa x Aurrera Ondarroa is analysed, notice that our AI model is not interested in getting the right result, but instead in looking for situations where the bookies offer us a positive expected value.
To achieve that, the algorithm analyses more than 287992 matches from Betfellows database, our collaborative prediction platform, seeking for patterns to get to the winning probabilities for the home team, a tie or a victory for the away team. That was the conclusion from our artificial intelligence:
Tips for the 1×2 market for Leioa x Aurrera Ondarroa
Is it worth betting on Leioa?
🔵 Leioa: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 63.25% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 1.64. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 630 times – profiting $403.20;
- And would lose other 370 times – having a loss of -$370.00 with them.
Although this bet has some value, notice that the expected profit is just 💰$33.20, which is not worth the risk in our point of view.
Should you bet on draw?
⚪ draw: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 23.89%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 3.40. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:
- Would hit 240 times – this would give you a profit of $576.00
- And would have lost other 760 times – with a loss of -$760.00 because of them.
Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$184.00.
Is it worth betting on Aurrera Ondarroa?
🔴 Aurrera Ondarroa: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 12.86% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 4.77. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 130 times – this would give you a profit of $490.10
- And would have lost other 870 times – with a loss of -$870.00 because of them.
That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$379.90.
Handicaps analysis for the match Leioa x Aurrera Ondarroa
Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. Maybe you do not even know what this is. If handicap is a 7-headed monster for you, all you have to do is click on our article about Asian handicap on soccer betting and you will find a complete material to quickly teach you how it works. Click on it and leave it open on another tab to read later..
This is what our nice robot has to tell us about these markets:
⚖ Handicap 1×2: -1.0 Leioa
⚽ Expected goals: 2.50 goals
Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Leioa x Aurrera Ondarroa
⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is -1.0 Leioa and the available handicap to bet at the moment is -0.75 Leioa.
We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is -0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: -0.75 Leioa.
Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Leioa x Aurrera Ondarroa
⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 2.50 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.25 goals.
We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.25 goals.
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Hi there! You can call me Beto! I'm 32 years old, graduated in Business Management and now I'm doing my second degree in Statistics and Data Science, which is really helpful to bring the Machine Learning models applied in sports betting that you see here. Even though I'm in this betting world since 2010, there's still a lot to be learned.> Check other content created by Humberto Alves