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Home » Predictions » Others » Lenense x Covadonga Betting tips for March 9 in Spain Tercera Group 2
Sunday, 09 March 2025, 11h30 Spain Tercera Group 2
Lenense Lenense
PREDICTION Covadonga Wins Probability 86% 1 X 2
Covadonga Covadonga
ODD: @1.33 Don't miss this prediction!

Lenense x Covadonga Betting tips for March 9 in Spain Tercera Group 2

Our betting tip for Lenense x Covadonga, Sunday, 9/3/2025
📅 9/3/2025
11:30
Lenense Lenense
7.50
X
4.33
Covadonga Covadonga
1.33

This is the tip that our machine learning model has selected for Lenense x Covadonga:

🔮 Covadonga wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Covadonga, you can win up to $665.00!

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Important information for your tip for Lenense x Covadonga:

👉 If you had bet $100 on Covadonga in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-35.0.
👉 In the last 3 matches as the home team, Lenense scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 4 matches as the away team, Covadonga conceded at least 1 goal(s).
👉 Playing as the home team, Lenense conceded at least 1 goal(s) in all the last 3 head-to-head against Covadonga.

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Summary

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Analysis from Lenense x Covadonga for the Spain Tercera Group 2 – 9 of March

🏟️ Lenense X Covadonga – Spain Tercera Group 2
📅 9 of March, 2025 – 11:30
🔵 Lenense – Winning probability: 1.77% | Fair line: 56.49
Tied game – Probability of tied match: 11.95% | Fair line: 8.37
🔴 Covadonga – Winning probability: 86.28% | Fair line: 1.16
⚖ Handicap 1×2: +1.0 Lenense
⚽ Expected goals: 3.00 goals
⛳ Expected corner kicks: 10.00 corner kicks

A good bettor is not the one with a high hits percentage, but the one who bets on positive expected value events. Our AI model knows it very well and has looked for these opportunities for the match between Lenense and Covadonga.

Therefore, to find the numbers, our artificial intelligence has colected information from around 1277138 matches on our betting database, in order to calculate the probabilities of this match ending with a home team victory, a tied match or even an away team victory. Check out the results:

Tips for the 1×2 market for Lenense x Covadonga

Is betting on Lenense worth it?

🔵 Lenense: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 1.77%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 7.50. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

  • Would hit 20 times – this would give you a profit of $130.00
  • And would have lost other 980 times – with a loss of -$980.00 because of them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$850.00.

Is it a good idea to bet on draw?

draw: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 11.95% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 4.33. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

  • Would hit 120 times – profiting $399.60;
  • And would lose other 880 times – losing -$880.00 with them.

That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$480.40.

Is betting on Covadonga worth it?

🔴 Covadonga: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 86.28%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 1.33. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

  • Would have hit 860 times – having a profit of $283.80;
  • And would lose other 140 times – having a loss of -$140.00 with them.

It is a value bet, since after all you would have an expected final profit of 💰$143.80.

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Handicaps analysis for the match Lenense x Covadonga

Another important market to analyse is the Asian handicaps one, our algorithm is also going to help you with that. If you have no idea what a handicap is, do not worry! We have a complete article about the Asian handicap on sporting betting that will answer all your questions. You can click on it and leave it open on another tab so you can read later.

Take a look at what our artificial intelligence has set apart for these markets:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: +1.0 Lenense
⚽ Expected goals: 3.00 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Lenense x Covadonga

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be +1.0 Lenense, and the current handicap offered by bookies is +1.25 Lenense.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is -0.25, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: +1.25 Lenense.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Lenense x Covadonga

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 3.00 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.50 goals.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.50, this means that the best bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.50 goals.

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Written by
Autor
Humberto Alves

Hi there! You can call me Beto! I'm 32 years old, graduated in Business Management and now I'm doing my second degree in Statistics and Data Science, which is really helpful to bring the Machine Learning models applied in sports betting that you see here. Even though I'm in this betting world since 2010, there's still a lot to be learned.

> Check other content created by Humberto Alves
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