📊 Check out the analysis on Betfellows for this match: Full prognostic for Linfield x Ballymena Utd
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Analysis from Linfield x Ballymena Utd for the Northern Ireland Premier – 15 of January
🏟️ Linfield X Ballymena Utd – Northern Ireland Premier
Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Linfield x Ballymena Utd right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.
To achieve that, the algorithm analyses more than 287992 matches from Betfellows database, our collaborative prediction platform, seeking for patterns to get to the winning probabilities for the home team, a tie or a victory for the away team. That was the conclusion from our artificial intelligence:
Tips for the 1×2 market for Linfield x Ballymena Utd
Should you bet on Linfield?
🔵 Linfield: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 83.65% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 1.36. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 840 times – this would give you a profit of $302.40
- And would lose other 160 times – losing -$160.00 with them.
So this is a value bet. After all, at the end of these bets, you would have an expected profit of 💰$142.40.
Is it worth betting on draw?
⚪ draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 10.91% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 4.25. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 110 times – profiting $357.50;
- And would lose other 890 times – losing -$890.00 with them.
So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$532.50.
Is it a good idea to bet on Ballymena Utd?
🔴 Ballymena Utd: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 5.44% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 7.50. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:
- Would have hit 50 times – having a profit of $325.00;
- And would lose other 950 times – having a loss of -$950.00 with them.
Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$625.00.
Handicaps analysis for the match Linfield x Ballymena Utd
Maybe you prefer another approach: betting on Asian handicaps. We thought about it and our model also seeks to find the main handicaps of the most important markets. Maybe you do not even know what this is. If handicap is a 7-headed monster for you, all you have to do is click on our article about Asian handicap on soccer betting and you will find a complete material to quickly teach you how it works. Click on it and leave it open on another tab to read later..
This is what our nice robot has to tell us about these markets:
⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.75 Linfield
⚽ Expected goals: 2.75 goals
Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Linfield x Ballymena Utd
⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be -0.75 Linfield, and the current handicap offered by bookies is -1.25 Linfield.
Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.50, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: 1.25 Ballymena Utd.
Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Linfield x Ballymena Utd
⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 2.75 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.75 goals. As the handicap available on the market is the same as that indicated by our robot, we will do nothing since there is not value bets on the Goals Handicap market.
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Hi there! You can call me Beto! I'm 32 years old, graduated in Business Management and now I'm doing my second degree in Statistics and Data Science, which is really helpful to bring the Machine Learning models applied in sports betting that you see here. Even though I'm in this betting world since 2010, there's still a lot to be learned.> Check other content created by Humberto Alves