📊 Check out the analysis from this match on Betfellows: Complete prognostic for Lugo x Almeria
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Analysis from Lugo x Almeria for the Spain Segunda – 19 of January
🏟️ Lugo X Almeria – Spain Segunda
A good bettor is not the one with a high hits percentage, but the one who bets on positive expected value events. Our AI model knows it very well and has looked for these opportunities for the match between Lugo and Almeria.
Therefore, to find the numbers, our artificial intelligence has colected information from around 289909 matches on the betting prognostics platform Betfellows , in order to calculate the probabilities of this match ending with a home team victory, a tied match or even an away team victory. Check out the results:
Tips for the Match Odds market for Lugo x Almeria
Should you bet on Lugo?
🔵 Lugo: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 10.32%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 3.40. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:
- Would hit 100 times – profiting $240.00;
- And would have lost other 900 times – with a loss of -$900.00 because of them.
Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$660.00.
Is it a good idea to bet on draw?
⚪ draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 31.68% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.10. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would have hit 320 times – having a profit of $672.00;
- And would lose other 680 times – having a loss of -$680.00 with them.
So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$8.00.
Is betting on Almeria worth it?
🔴 Almeria: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 58.0% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 2.15. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 580 times – profiting $667.00;
- And would lose other 420 times – having a loss of -$420.00 with them.
Mathematically speaking, this is a value bet because you would have an expected final profit of 💰$247.00.
Handicaps analysis for the match Lugo x Almeria
Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. Maybe you do not even know what this is. If handicap is a 7-headed monster for you, all you have to do is click on our article about Asian handicap on soccer betting and you will find a complete material to quickly teach you how it works. Click on it and leave it open on another tab to read later..
Moving ahead we can see what the model has in store for these markets here:
⚖ Handicap 1×2: +0.25 Lugo
⚽ Expected goals: 2.50 goals
Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Lugo x Almeria
⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is +0.25 Lugo and the available handicap to bet at the moment is +0.25 Lugo.
Since the handicap offered by bookmakers is the same as the one we got with our model, there is not any value bets on the Handicap 1×2 market.
Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Lugo x Almeria
⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 2.50 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.25 goals.
We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.25 goals.
You can check out our tips on YouTube
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Hi there! You can call me Beto! I'm 32 years old, graduated in Business Management and now I'm doing my second degree in Statistics and Data Science, which is really helpful to bring the Machine Learning models applied in sports betting that you see here. Even though I'm in this betting world since 2010, there's still a lot to be learned.> Check other content created by Humberto Alves