📊 You can also check out the full analysis on Betfellows: Prognostic for Luton x Bristol City
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Analysis from Luton x Bristol City for the England Championship – 26 of December
🏟️ Luton X Bristol City – England Championship
Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Luton x Bristol Cityright, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.
Therefore, to find the numbers, our artificial inteligelnce has colected information from around 281997 matches on the betting prognostics platform Betfellows , in order to calculate the probabilities of this match ending with a home team victory, a tied match or even an away team victory. Check out the results:
Tips for the 1×2 market for Luton x Bristol City
Is it worth betting on Luton?
🔵 Luton: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 68.03% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 1.73. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 680 times – profiting $496.40;
- And would lose other 320 times – losing -$320.00 with them.
Mathematically speaking, this is a value bet because you would have an expected final profit of 💰$176.40.
Is it worth betting on draw?
⚪ draw: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 19.75%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 3.60. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 200 times – this would give you a profit of $520.00
- And would lose other 800 times – having a loss of -$800.00 with them.
So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$280.00.
Is it a good idea to bet on Bristol City?
🔴 Bristol City: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 12.22% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 4.60. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:
- Would hit 120 times – this would give you a profit of $432.00
- And would lose other 880 times – having a loss of -$880.00 with them.
Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$448.00.
Handicaps analysis for the match Luton x Bristol City
Maybe you prefer another approach: betting on Asian handicaps. We thought about it and our model also seeks to find the main handicaps of the most important markets. If you have no idea what a handicap is, do not worry! We have a complete article about the Asian handicap on sporting betting that will answer all your questions. You can click on it and leave it open on another tab so you can read later.
Going ahead we can see what the model has in store for these markets here:
⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.75 Luton
⚽ Expected goals: 2.50 goals
Tips for the market Handicap 1×2 for Luton x Bristol City
⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is -0.75 Luton and the available handicap to bet at that moment is -0.75 Luton.
The handicap that our algorithm found is the same as the bookies, which means that there is not any value to bet on the Handicap 1×2market.
Tips for the market Goals Handicap for Luton x Bristol City
⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.50 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.50 goals.
Since the handicap offered by bookmakers is the same as the one we got with our model, there is not any value bets on the Goals Handicapmarket.
Our tips are also on YouTube
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Hi there! You can call me Beto! I'm 32 years old, graduated in Business Management and now I'm doing my second degree in Statistics and Data Science, which is really helpful to bring the Machine Learning models applied in sports betting that you see here. Even though I'm in this betting world since 2010, there's still a lot to be learned.> Check other content created by Humberto Alves