Marbella FC x Alcorcon Betting tips for January 12 in Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2

Our betting tip for Marbella FC x Alcorcon, Sunday, 12/1/2025

📅 12/1/2025 14:30

Marbella FC 2.02

X 3.17

Alcorcon 3.40

This is the bet made by our artificial intelligence for Marbella FC x Alcorcon:

👎 Umm…too bad! We did not find any positive expected value bets for Marbella FC x Alcorcon

Important information for your tip for Marbella FC x Alcorcon: 👉 If you had bet $100 on Marbella FC in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-120.0. 👉 If you had bet $100 on Alcorcon in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a profit of $545.0. 👉 In the last 3 matches as the away team, Alcorcon scored at least 2 goal(s). 👉 Alcorcon is hard to beat as a visitor: it has 3 wins in a row in its last road matches.

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Analysis from Marbella FC x Alcorcon for the Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2 – 12 of January

When the best bet on Marbella FC x Alcorcon is analysed, notice that our AI model is not interested in getting the right result, but instead in looking for situations where the bookies offer us a positive expected value.

And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1244844 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:

Tips for the Match Odds market for Marbella FC x Alcorcon

Is it a good idea to bet on Marbella FC?

🔵 Marbella FC: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 47.19% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 2.02. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 470 times – having a profit of $479.40;
• And would have lost other 530 times – with a loss of -$530.00 because of them.

That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$50.60.

Is betting on draw worth it?

⚪ draw: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 29.92% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.17. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would have hit 300 times – having a profit of $651.00;
• And would lose other 700 times – having a loss of -$700.00 with them.

We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$49.00.

Is betting on Alcorcon worth it?

🔴 Alcorcon: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 22.88%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 3.40. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would have hit 230 times – having a profit of $552.00;
• And would lose other 770 times – having a loss of -$770.00 with them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$218.00.

Handicaps analysis for the match Marbella FC x Alcorcon

Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. Maybe you do not even know what this is. If handicap is a 7-headed monster for you, all you have to do is click on our article about Asian handicap on football betting and you will find a complete material to quickly teach you how it works. Click on it and leave it open on another tab to read later..

These are the handicaps that our algorithm analysed for you:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.25 Marbella FC
⚽ Expected goals: 3.00 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Marbella FC x Alcorcon

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be -0.25 Marbella FC, and the current handicap offered by bookies is -0.25 Marbella FC.

Since there is not big differences between the handicap offered by bookies and the one suggested by our algorithm, we can consider that there is no value to bet on the Handicap 1×2 market.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Marbella FC x Alcorcon

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 3.00 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.50 goals.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.50. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.50 goals.