Marbella FC x Merida Betting tips for September 29 in Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2

Our betting tip for Marbella FC x Merida, Sunday, 29/9/2024

📅 29/9/2024 07:00

Marbella FC 2.40

X 3.00

Merida 2.80

This is the tip that our machine learning model has selected for Marbella FC x Merida:

👎 Umm…too bad! We did not find any positive expected value bets for Marbella FC x Merida

Important information for your tip for Marbella FC x Merida: 👉 If you had bet $100 on Marbella FC in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a profit of $180.0. 👉 If you had bet $100 on Merida in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a profit of $45.0. 👉 In the last 4 matches as the home team against Merida, Marbella FC scored at least 1 goal(s). 👉 In the last 4 Marbella FC matches as the home team, it finished under 2.5 goals. 👉 Marbella FC has not lost any of the last 4 head-to-head matches against Merida playing at home.

Do you want other suggestions of bookmakers to bet on Marbella FC x Merida?

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Analysis from Marbella FC x Merida for the Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2 – 29 of September

Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Marbella FC x Merida right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.

Therefore, to find the numbers, our artificial intelligence has colected information from around 1190630 matches on our betting database, in order to calculate the probabilities of this match ending with a home team victory, a tied match or even an away team victory. Check out the results:

Tips for the Match Odds market for Marbella FC x Merida

Should you bet on Marbella FC?

🔵 Marbella FC: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 35.31% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 2.40. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 350 times – profiting $490.00;
• And would lose other 650 times – losing -$650.00 with them.

That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$160.00.

Is it a good idea to bet on draw?

⚪ draw: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 29.35%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 3.00. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would have hit 290 times – having a profit of $580.00;
• And would have lost other 710 times – with a loss of -$710.00 because of them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$130.00.

Is betting on Merida worth it?

🔴 Merida: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 35.34% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 2.80. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 350 times – having a profit of $630.00;
• And would lose other 650 times – having a loss of -$650.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$20.00.

Handicaps analysis for the match Marbella FC x Merida

Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. In case you do not know what handicaps are, we will solve this problem now: we sorted out the material about Asian handicap on betting so you can click and save it to learn about it on the first opportunity.

These are the handicaps that our algorithm analysed for you:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: +0.25 Marbella FC
⚽ Expected goals: 2.25 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Marbella FC x Merida

⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is +0.25 Marbella FC and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 0.0 Marbella FC.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: -0.0 Merida.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Marbella FC x Merida

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.25 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.00 goals.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.00 goals.