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Home » Predictions » Others » Merthyr Town x Basingstoke Betting tips for February 4 in England Southern Premier League South
Tuesday, 04 February 2025, 19h45 England Southern Premier League South
Merthyr Town Merthyr Town
PREDICTION Merthyr Town wins Probability 75% 1 X 2
Basingstoke Basingstoke
ODD: @1.36 Don't miss this prediction!

Merthyr Town x Basingstoke Betting tips for February 4 in England Southern Premier League South

Our betting tip for Merthyr Town x Basingstoke, Tuesday, 4/2/2025
📅 4/2/2025
19:45
Merthyr Town Merthyr Town
1.36
X
5.22
Basingstoke Basingstoke
6.01

Our algorithm has selected this tip for Merthyr Town x Basingstoke:

🔮 Merthyr Town wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Merthyr Town, you can win up to $680.00!

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Some important points for the tip for Merthyr Town x Basingstoke:

👉 If you had bet $100 on Merthyr Town in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-157.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Basingstoke in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-225.0.
👉 In the last 4 matches as the home team against Basingstoke, Merthyr Town scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 3 Merthyr Town matches as the home team, it finished under 2.5 goals.
👉 In the last 3 Basingstoke matches as the away team, it finished under 2.5 goals.
👉 In the last 8 matches as the away team, Basingstoke conceded at least 1 goal(s).
👉 Merthyr Town has not lost any of the last 4 head-to-head matches against Basingstoke playing at home.

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Summary

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Analysis from Merthyr Town x Basingstoke for the England Southern Premier League South – 4 of February

🏟️ Merthyr Town X Basingstoke – England Southern Premier League South
📅 4 of February, 2025 – 19:45
🔵 Merthyr Town – Winning probability: 75.52% | Fair line: 1.32
Tied game – Probability of tied match: 17.51% | Fair line: 5.71
🔴 Basingstoke – Winning probability: 6.97% | Fair line: 14.36
⚖ Handicap 1×2: -1.0 Merthyr Town
⚽ Expected goals: 3.00 goals
⛳ Expected corner kicks: 10.00 corner kicks

A good bettor is not the one with a high hits percentage, but the one who bets on positive expected value events. Our AI model knows it very well and has looked for these opportunities for the match between Merthyr Town and Basingstoke.

To achieve that, the algorithm analyses more than 1256585 matches from our database seeking for patterns to get to the winning probabilities for the home team, a tie or a victory for the away team. That was the conclusion from our artificial intelligence:

Tips for the 1×2 market for Merthyr Town x Basingstoke

Is it a good idea to bet on Merthyr Town?

🔵 Merthyr Town: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 75.52% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 1.36. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

  • Would have hit 760 times – having a profit of $273.60;
  • And would have lost other 240 times – with a loss of -$240.00 because of them.

Mathematically speaking, this is a value bet because you would have an expected final profit of 💰$33.60.

Is it worth betting on draw?

draw: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 17.51% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 5.22. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

  • Would hit 180 times – this would give you a profit of $759.60
  • And would lose other 820 times – losing -$820.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$60.40.

Is betting on Basingstoke worth it?

🔴 Basingstoke: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 6.97%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 6.01. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

  • Would hit 70 times – profiting $350.70;
  • And would lose other 930 times – losing -$930.00 with them.

We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$579.30.

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Handicaps analysis for the match Merthyr Town x Basingstoke

Maybe you prefer another approach: betting on Asian handicaps. We thought about it and our model also seeks to find the main handicaps of the most important markets. If you have no idea what a handicap is, do not worry! We have a complete article about the Asian handicap on sporting betting that will answer all your questions. You can click on it and leave it open on another tab so you can read later.

Moving ahead we can see what the model has in store for these markets here:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -1.0 Merthyr Town
⚽ Expected goals: 3.00 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Merthyr Town x Basingstoke

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be -1.0 Merthyr Town, and the current handicap offered by bookies is -1.5 Merthyr Town.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.50, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: 1.5 Basingstoke.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Merthyr Town x Basingstoke

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 3.00 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 3.50 goals.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is -0.50. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: – 3.50 goals.

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Written by

Autor
Humberto Alves

Hi there! You can call me Beto! I'm 32 years old, graduated in Business Management and now I'm doing my second degree in Statistics and Data Science, which is really helpful to bring the Machine Learning models applied in sports betting that you see here. Even though I'm in this betting world since 2010, there's still a lot to be learned.

> Check other content created by Humberto Alves
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