📊 Check out the full analysis on Betfellows: Prognostic for Middlesbrough x Nottm Forest
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Analysis from Middlesbrough x Nottm Forest for the England Championship – 26 of December
🏟️ Middlesbrough X Nottm Forest – England Championship
Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Middlesbrough x Nottm Forestright, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.
To achieve that, the algorithm analyses more than 281997 matches from Betfellows database, our collaborative prediction platform, seeking for patterns to get to the winning probabilities for the home team, a tie or a victory for the away team. That was the conclusion from our artificial intelligence:
Tips for the 1×2 market for Middlesbrough x Nottm Forest
Is it worth betting on Middlesbrough?
🔵 Middlesbrough: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 49.55% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 2.07. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 500 times – profiting $535.00;
- And would have lost other 500 times – with a loss of -$500.00 because of them.
Even if it is a positive expected value bet, the expected profit is just 💰$35.00 which is not worth the risk in our opinion.
Is betting on draw worth it?
⚪ draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 35.98% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.25. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 360 times – profiting $810.00;
- And would have lost other 640 times – with a loss of -$640.00 because of them.
That is why this is a value bet. In the end, you would have had a final profit of 💰$170.00.
Is it worth betting on Nottm Forest?
🔴 Nottm Forest: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 14.47%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 3.59. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 140 times – profiting $362.60;
- And would have lost other 860 times – with a loss of -$860.00 because of them.
Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$497.40.
Handicaps analysis for the match Middlesbrough x Nottm Forest
Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. In case you do not know what handicaps are, we will solve this problem now: we sorted out the material about Asian handicap on betting so you can click and save it to learn about it on the first opportunity.
This is what our nice robot has to tell us about these markets:
⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.25 Middlesbrough
⚽ Expected goals: 3.25 goals
Tips for the market Handicap 1×2 for Middlesbrough x Nottm Forest
⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is -0.25 Middlesbrough and the available handicap to bet at that moment is -0.25 Middlesbrough. As the handicap available on the market is the same as that indicated by our robot, we will do nothing since there is not value bets on the Handicap 1×2market.
Tips for the market Goals Handicap for Middlesbrough x Nottm Forest
⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 3.25 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.25 goals.
Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 1.00, this means that the best bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.25 goals.
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Hi there! You can call me Beto! I'm 32 years old, graduated in Business Management and now I'm doing my second degree in Statistics and Data Science, which is really helpful to bring the Machine Learning models applied in sports betting that you see here. Even though I'm in this betting world since 2010, there's still a lot to be learned.> Check other content created by Humberto Alves