Mlada Boleslav x Dukla Praha Betting tips for May 11 in Czechia First League

Our betting tip for Mlada Boleslav x Dukla Praha, Sunday, 11/5/2025

📅 11/5/2025 13:00

Mlada Boleslav 1.89

X 3.60

Dukla Praha 3.56

This is the tip that our machine learning model has selected for Mlada Boleslav x Dukla Praha:

👎 Unfortunately, we did not find any positive expected value bets for Mlada Boleslav x Dukla Praha

The main points for the tip for Mlada Boleslav x Dukla Praha: 👉 If you had bet $100 on Mlada Boleslav in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-285.0. 👉 If you had bet $100 on Dukla Praha in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a profit of $230.0. 👉 In the last 5 matches as the away team, Dukla Praha scored at least 1 goal(s). 👉 In the last 3 Mlada Boleslav matches as the home team, it finished under 2.5 goals. 👉 Playing as the home team, Mlada Boleslav conceded at least 1 goal(s) in all the last 3 head-to-head against Dukla Praha.

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Analysis from Mlada Boleslav x Dukla Praha for the Czechia First League – 11 of May

Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Mlada Boleslav x Dukla Praha right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.

And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1322631 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:

Tips for the 1×2 market for Mlada Boleslav x Dukla Praha

Is it worth betting on Mlada Boleslav?

🔵 Mlada Boleslav: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 50.74% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 1.89. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 510 times – profiting $453.90;
• And would lose other 490 times – losing -$490.00 with them.

That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$36.10.

Is it worth betting on draw?

⚪ draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 22.31% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.60. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 220 times – this would give you a profit of $572.00
• And would lose other 780 times – losing -$780.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$208.00.

Is it a good idea to bet on Dukla Praha?

🔴 Dukla Praha: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 26.94%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 3.56. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 270 times – profiting $691.20;
• And would lose other 730 times – having a loss of -$730.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$38.80.

Handicaps analysis for the match Mlada Boleslav x Dukla Praha

Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. If you have no idea what a handicap is, do not worry! We have a complete article about the Asian handicap on sporting betting that will answer all your questions. You can click on it and leave it open on another tab so you can read later.

Moving ahead we can see what the model has in store for these markets here:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.5 Mlada Boleslav
⚽ Expected goals: 2.50 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Mlada Boleslav x Dukla Praha

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be -0.5 Mlada Boleslav, and the current handicap offered by bookies is -0.5 Mlada Boleslav.

The handicap that our algorithm found is the same as the bookies, which means that there is not any value to bet on the Handicap 1×2 market.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Mlada Boleslav x Dukla Praha

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.50 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.75 goals.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is -0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: – 2.75 goals.