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Home » Predictions » Others » Monagas x Defensor Sporting Betting tips for February 5 in Copa Libertadores Qualification
Wednesday, 05 February 2025, 00h30 Copa Libertadores Qualification
Monagas Monagas
PREDICTION Monagas wins Probability 56% 1 X 2
Defensor Sporting Defensor Sporting
ODD: @2.83 Don't miss this prediction!

Monagas x Defensor Sporting Betting tips for February 5 in Copa Libertadores Qualification

Our betting tip for Monagas x Defensor Sporting, Wednesday, 5/2/2025
📅 5/2/2025
00:30
Monagas Monagas
2.83
X
3.10
Defensor Sporting Defensor Sporting
2.40

This is the tip that our machine learning model has selected for Monagas x Defensor Sporting:

🔮 Monagas wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Monagas, you can win up to $1415.00!

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The main points for the tip for Monagas x Defensor Sporting:

👉 If you had bet $100 on Monagas in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-500.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Defensor Sporting in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-275.0.
👉 In the last 7 matches as the home team, Monagas conceded at least 1 goal(s).

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Summary

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Analysis from Monagas x Defensor Sporting for the Copa Libertadores Qualification – 5 of February

🏟️ Monagas X Defensor Sporting – Copa Libertadores Qualification
📅 5 of February, 2025 – 00:30
🔵 Monagas – Winning probability: 56.95% | Fair line: 1.76
Tied game – Probability of tied match: 9.58% | Fair line: 10.44
🔴 Defensor Sporting – Winning probability: 33.47% | Fair line: 2.99
⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.5 Monagas
⚽ Expected goals: 3.25 goals
⛳ Expected corner kicks: 9.50 corner kicks

Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Monagas x Defensor Sporting right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.

And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1257615 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:

Tips for the 1×2 market for Monagas x Defensor Sporting

Should you bet on Monagas?

🔵 Monagas: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 56.95% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 2.83. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

  • Would have hit 570 times – having a profit of $1043.10;
  • And would have lost other 430 times – with a loss of -$430.00 because of them.

That is why this is a value bet. In the end, you would have had a final profit of 💰$613.10.

Is it a good idea to bet on draw?

draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 9.58% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.10. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

  • Would hit 100 times – this would give you a profit of $210.00
  • And would have lost other 900 times – with a loss of -$900.00 because of them.

That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$690.00.

Is betting on Defensor Sporting worth it?

🔴 Defensor Sporting: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 33.47%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 2.40. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

  • Would hit 330 times – profiting $462.00;
  • And would lose other 670 times – having a loss of -$670.00 with them.

We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$208.00.

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Handicaps analysis for the match Monagas x Defensor Sporting

Another important market to analyse is the Asian handicaps one, our algorithm is also going to help you with that. If you have no idea what a handicap is, do not worry! We have a complete article about the Asian handicap on sporting betting that will answer all your questions. You can click on it and leave it open on another tab so you can read later.

Take a look at what our artificial intelligence has set apart for these markets:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.5 Monagas
⚽ Expected goals: 3.25 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Monagas x Defensor Sporting

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be -0.5 Monagas, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 0.0 Monagas.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is -0.50. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: 0.0 Monagas.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Monagas x Defensor Sporting

⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 3.25 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.25 goals.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 1.00. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.25 goals.

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Written by

Autor
Humberto Alves

Hi there! You can call me Beto! I'm 32 years old, graduated in Business Management and now I'm doing my second degree in Statistics and Data Science, which is really helpful to bring the Machine Learning models applied in sports betting that you see here. Even though I'm in this betting world since 2010, there's still a lot to be learned.

> Check other content created by Humberto Alves
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