Moncarapachense x Estrela Amadora B Betting tips for February 2 in Portugal Campeonato Nacional

Our betting tip for Moncarapachense x Estrela Amadora B, Sunday, 2/2/2025

📅 2/2/2025 15:00

Moncarapachense 1.60

X 3.68

Estrela Amadora B 4.75

This is the bet made by our artificial intelligence for Moncarapachense x Estrela Amadora B:

👎 Umm…what a pity! We do not have any positive expected value tips for Moncarapachense x Estrela Amadora B

The main points for the tip for Moncarapachense x Estrela Amadora B: 👉 If you had bet $100 on Moncarapachense in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a profit of $557.0. 👉 If you had bet $100 on Estrela Amadora B in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-260.0. 👉 In the last 7 matches as the home team, Moncarapachense scored at least 1 goal(s). 👉 Moncarapachense is good playing home: it has 7 wins in a row in its last matches at home.

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Analysis from Moncarapachense x Estrela Amadora B for the Portugal Campeonato Nacional – 2 of February

Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Moncarapachense x Estrela Amadora B right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.

Therefore, to find the numbers, our artificial intelligence has colected information from around 1255121 matches on our betting database, in order to calculate the probabilities of this match ending with a home team victory, a tied match or even an away team victory. Check out the results:

Tips for the 1×2 market for Moncarapachense x Estrela Amadora B

Is it worth betting on Moncarapachense?

🔵 Moncarapachense: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 61.35% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 1.60. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 610 times – having a profit of $366.00;
• And would lose other 390 times – losing -$390.00 with them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$24.00.

Is betting on draw worth it?

⚪ draw: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 26.17%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 3.68. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 260 times – this would give you a profit of $696.80
• And would lose other 740 times – losing -$740.00 with them.

We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$43.20.

Is it worth betting on Estrela Amadora B?

🔴 Estrela Amadora B: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 12.48% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 4.75. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 120 times – profiting $450.00;
• And would have lost other 880 times – with a loss of -$880.00 because of them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$430.00.

Handicaps analysis for the match Moncarapachense x Estrela Amadora B

Maybe you prefer another approach: betting on Asian handicaps. We thought about it and our model also seeks to find the main handicaps of the most important markets. Maybe you do not even know what this is. If handicap is a 7-headed monster for you, all you have to do is click on our article about Asian handicap on football betting and you will find a complete material to quickly teach you how it works. Click on it and leave it open on another tab to read later..

This is what our nice robot has to tell us about these markets:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.25 Moncarapachense
⚽ Expected goals: 2.50 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Moncarapachense x Estrela Amadora B

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be -0.25 Moncarapachense, and the current handicap offered by bookies is -0.75 Moncarapachense.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.50. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: 0.75 Estrela Amadora B.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Moncarapachense x Estrela Amadora B

⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 2.50 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.50 goals.

Since there is not big differences between the handicap offered by bookies and the one suggested by our algorithm, we can consider that there is no value to bet on the Goals Handicap market.