Moralo x Castuera Betting tips for February 2 in Spain Tercera Group 14
📅 2/2/2025 16:00 |
![]() 1.37 |
X 4.33 |
Castuera ![]() 6.20 |
This is the bet made by our artificial intelligence for Moralo x Castuera:
🔮 Moralo wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Moralo, you can win up to $685.00!
The main points for the tip for Moralo x Castuera: 👉 If you had bet $100 on Moralo in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-193.0. |

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Analysis from Moralo x Castuera for the Spain Tercera Group 14 – 2 of February
🏟️ Moralo X Castuera – Spain Tercera Group 14 |
Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Moralo x Castuera right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.
And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1255121 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:
Tips for the 1×2 market for Moralo x Castuera
Should you bet on Moralo?
🔵 Moralo: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 87.51% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 1.37. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 880 times – this would give you a profit of $325.60
- And would lose other 120 times – having a loss of -$120.00 with them.
Mathematically speaking, this is a value bet because you would have an expected final profit of 💰$205.60.
Is it a good idea to bet on draw?
⚪ draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 9.87% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 4.33. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 100 times – profiting $333.00;
- And would lose other 900 times – having a loss of -$900.00 with them.
That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$567.00.
Is it a good idea to bet on Castuera?
🔴 Castuera: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 2.62% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 6.20. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 30 times – this would give you a profit of $156.00
- And would have lost other 970 times – with a loss of -$970.00 because of them.
We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$814.00.
Handicaps analysis for the match Moralo x Castuera
Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. Maybe you do not even know what this is. If handicap is a 7-headed monster for you, all you have to do is click on our article about Asian handicap on football betting and you will find a complete material to quickly teach you how it works. Click on it and leave it open on another tab to read later..
This is what our nice robot has to tell us about these markets:
⚖ Handicap 1×2: -1.5 Moralo
⚽ Expected goals: 3.00 goals
Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Moralo x Castuera
⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be -1.5 Moralo, and the current handicap offered by bookies is -1.25 Moralo.
We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is -0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: -1.25 Moralo.
Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Moralo x Castuera
⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 3.00 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.75 goals.
Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.25, this means that the best bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.75 goals.