Moralo x CD Azuaga Betting tips for September 29 in Spain Tercera Group 14

Our betting tip for Moralo x CD Azuaga, Sunday, 29/9/2024

📅 29/9/2024 13:00

Moralo 2.28

X 3.20

CD Azuaga 2.80

This is the tip that our machine learning model has selected for Moralo x CD Azuaga:

👎 Umm…what a pity! We do not have any positive expected value tips for Moralo x CD Azuaga

Important information for your tip for Moralo x CD Azuaga: 👉 In the last 5 matches as the away team, CD Azuaga scored at least 1 goal(s). 👉 In the last 5 head-to-head matches between Moralo x CD Azuaga, with Moralo as the home team, they finished under 2.5 goals. 👉 In the last 5 matches as the away team, CD Azuaga conceded at least 1 goal(s).

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Analysis from Moralo x CD Azuaga for the Spain Tercera Group 14 – 29 of September

Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Moralo x CD Azuaga right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.

Therefore, to find the numbers, our artificial intelligence has colected information from around 1190630 matches on our betting database, in order to calculate the probabilities of this match ending with a home team victory, a tied match or even an away team victory. Check out the results:

Tips for the 1×2 market for Moralo x CD Azuaga

Is it worth betting on Moralo?

🔵 Moralo: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 38.05% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 2.28. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 380 times – profiting $486.40;
• And would lose other 620 times – having a loss of -$620.00 with them.

That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$133.60.

Is betting on draw worth it?

⚪ draw: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 32.58% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.20. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 330 times – profiting $726.00;
• And would lose other 670 times – losing -$670.00 with them.

Although this bet has some value, notice that the expected profit is just 💰$56.00, which is not worth the risk in our point of view.

Is it a good idea to bet on CD Azuaga?

🔴 CD Azuaga: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 29.38% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 2.80. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 290 times – this would give you a profit of $522.00
• And would lose other 710 times – having a loss of -$710.00 with them.

We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$188.00.

Handicaps analysis for the match Moralo x CD Azuaga

Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. If you have no idea what a handicap is, do not worry! We have a complete article about the Asian handicap on sporting betting that will answer all your questions. You can click on it and leave it open on another tab so you can read later.

Take a look at what our artificial intelligence has set apart for these markets:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: 0.0 Moralo
⚽ Expected goals: 2.50 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Moralo x CD Azuaga

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 0.0 Moralo, and the current handicap offered by bookies is -0.25 Moralo.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: 0.25 CD Azuaga.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Moralo x CD Azuaga

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.50 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.25 goals.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.25 goals.