📊 Check out the analysis from this match on Betfellows: Complete prognostic for Motherwell x Morton
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Analysis from Motherwell x Morton for the Scotland FA Cup – 22 of January
🏟️ Motherwell X Morton – Scotland FA Cup
When the best bet on Motherwell x Morton is analysed, notice that our AI model is not interested in getting the right result, but instead in looking for situations where the bookies offer us a positive expected value.
And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 290605 matches on the database from our soccer prognostics platform, Betfellows, looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:
Tips for the 1×2 market for Motherwell x Morton
Is betting on Motherwell worth it?
🔵 Motherwell: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 81.12% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 1.46. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 810 times – profiting $372.60;
- And would have lost other 190 times – with a loss of -$190.00 because of them.
That is why this is a value bet. In the end, you would have had a final profit of 💰$182.60.
Is it worth betting on draw?
⚪ draw: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 4.56% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 4.00. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would have hit 50 times – having a profit of $150.00;
- And would have lost other 950 times – with a loss of -$950.00 because of them.
That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$800.00.
Is betting on Morton worth it?
🔴 Morton: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 14.31%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 6.25. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:
- Would hit 140 times – profiting $735.00;
- And would have lost other 860 times – with a loss of -$860.00 because of them.
We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$125.00.
Handicaps analysis for the match Motherwell x Morton
Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. In case you do not know what handicaps are, we will solve this problem now: we sorted out the material about Asian handicap on betting so you can click and save it to learn about it on the first opportunity.
Take a look at what our artificial intelligence has set apart for these markets:
⚖ Handicap 1×2: -1.25 Motherwell
⚽ Expected goals: 2.75 goals
Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Motherwell x Morton
⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is -1.25 Motherwell and the available handicap to bet at the moment is -1.0 Motherwell.
Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is -0.25, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: -1.0 Motherwell.
Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Motherwell x Morton
⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.75 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.50 goals.
We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.50 goals.
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Hi there! You can call me Beto! I'm 32 years old, graduated in Business Management and now I'm doing my second degree in Statistics and Data Science, which is really helpful to bring the Machine Learning models applied in sports betting that you see here. Even though I'm in this betting world since 2010, there's still a lot to be learned.> Check other content created by Humberto Alves