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Home » Predictions » Others » Nacional Asuncion x Alianza Lima Betting tips for February 6 in Copa Libertadores Qualification
Thursday, 06 February 2025, 00h30 Copa Libertadores Qualification
Nacional Asuncion Nacional Asuncion
PREDICTION Nacional Asuncion wins Probability 60% 1 X 2
Alianza Lima Alianza Lima
ODD: @2.15 Don't miss this prediction!

Nacional Asuncion x Alianza Lima Betting tips for February 6 in Copa Libertadores Qualification

Our betting tip for Nacional Asuncion x Alianza Lima, Thursday, 6/2/2025
📅 6/2/2025
00:30
Nacional Asuncion Nacional Asuncion
2.15
X
3.20
Alianza Lima Alianza Lima
3.30

This is the tip that our machine learning model has selected for Nacional Asuncion x Alianza Lima:

🔮 Nacional Asuncion wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Nacional Asuncion, you can win up to $1075.00!

Or access: https://www.bet365.com
 

The main points for the tip for Nacional Asuncion x Alianza Lima:

👉 If you had bet $100 on Nacional Asuncion in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-55.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Alianza Lima in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a profit of $10.0.
👉 In the last 5 matches as the away team, Alianza Lima scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 3 matches as the away team, Alianza Lima conceded at least 1 goal(s).

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Summary

Do you want other suggestions of bookmakers to bet on Nacional Asuncion x Alianza Lima?

If you want other options of bookmakers to bet on Nacional Asuncion x Alianza Lima, no problem. Right below you have the sports betting sites that we used the most in 2025. You will be in good hands on any of them, just pick your favorite and start betting:

Analysis from Nacional Asuncion x Alianza Lima for the Copa Libertadores Qualification – 6 of February

🏟️ Nacional Asuncion X Alianza Lima – Copa Libertadores Qualification
📅 6 of February, 2025 – 00:30
🔵 Nacional Asuncion – Winning probability: 60.43% | Fair line: 1.65
Tied game – Probability of tied match: 15.25% | Fair line: 6.56
🔴 Alianza Lima – Winning probability: 24.33% | Fair line: 4.11
⚖ Handicap 1×2: 0.0 Nacional Asuncion
⚽ Expected goals: 3.00 goals
⛳ Expected corner kicks: 8.75 corner kicks

A good bettor is not the one with a high hits percentage, but the one who bets on positive expected value events. Our AI model knows it very well and has looked for these opportunities for the match between Nacional Asuncion and Alianza Lima.

Therefore, to find the numbers, our artificial intelligence has colected information from around 1257906 matches on our betting database, in order to calculate the probabilities of this match ending with a home team victory, a tied match or even an away team victory. Check out the results:

Tips for the 1×2 market for Nacional Asuncion x Alianza Lima

Is betting on Nacional Asuncion worth it?

🔵 Nacional Asuncion: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 60.43% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 2.15. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

  • Would have hit 600 times – having a profit of $690.00;
  • And would have lost other 400 times – with a loss of -$400.00 because of them.

Mathematically speaking, this is a value bet because you would have an expected final profit of 💰$290.00.

Is it a good idea to bet on draw?

draw: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 15.25%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 3.20. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

  • Would have hit 150 times – having a profit of $330.00;
  • And would lose other 850 times – losing -$850.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$520.00.

Is it worth betting on Alianza Lima?

🔴 Alianza Lima: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 24.33%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 3.30. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

  • Would hit 240 times – this would give you a profit of $552.00
  • And would have lost other 760 times – with a loss of -$760.00 because of them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$208.00.

Place your Bet with Bet365 Bonus

Handicaps analysis for the match Nacional Asuncion x Alianza Lima

Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. If you have no idea what a handicap is, do not worry! We have a complete article about the Asian handicap on sporting betting that will answer all your questions. You can click on it and leave it open on another tab so you can read later.

This is what our nice robot has to tell us about these markets:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: 0.0 Nacional Asuncion
⚽ Expected goals: 3.00 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Nacional Asuncion x Alianza Lima

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 0.0 Nacional Asuncion, and the current handicap offered by bookies is -0.25 Nacional Asuncion.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.25, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: 0.25 Alianza Lima.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Nacional Asuncion x Alianza Lima

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 3.00 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.25 goals.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.75. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.25 goals.

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Written by

Autor
Humberto Alves

Hi there! You can call me Beto! I'm 32 years old, graduated in Business Management and now I'm doing my second degree in Statistics and Data Science, which is really helpful to bring the Machine Learning models applied in sports betting that you see here. Even though I'm in this betting world since 2010, there's still a lot to be learned.

> Check other content created by Humberto Alves
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