Nacional Asuncion x Cerro Porteno Betting tips for April 15 in Paraguay Division Profesional

Our betting tip for Nacional Asuncion x Cerro Porteno, Tuesday, 15/4/2025

📅 15/4/2025 23:15

Nacional Asuncion 3.02

X 3.06

Cerro Porteno 2.25

This is the tip that our machine learning model has selected for Nacional Asuncion x Cerro Porteno:

🔮 Nacional Asuncion wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Nacional Asuncion, you can win up to $1510.00!

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Important information for your tip for Nacional Asuncion x Cerro Porteno: 👉 If you had bet $100 on Nacional Asuncion in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a profit of $85.0. 👉 If you had bet $100 on Cerro Porteno in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a profit of $255.0. 👉 In the last 6 matches as the home team, Nacional Asuncion scored at least 1 goal(s). 👉 In the last 4 Nacional Asuncion matches as the home team, it finished under 2.5 goals. 👉 In the last 5 Cerro Porteno matches as the away team, it finished under 2.5 goals. 👉 In the last 3 matches as the away team, Cerro Porteno conceded at least 1 goal(s). 👉 Playing as the home team, Nacional Asuncion conceded at least 1 goal(s) in all the last 4 head-to-head against Cerro Porteno.

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Analysis from Nacional Asuncion x Cerro Porteno for the Paraguay Division Profesional – 15 of April

Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Nacional Asuncion x Cerro Porteno right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.

Therefore, to find the numbers, our artificial intelligence has colected information from around 1304535 matches on our betting database, in order to calculate the probabilities of this match ending with a home team victory, a tied match or even an away team victory. Check out the results:

Tips for the 1×2 market for Nacional Asuncion x Cerro Porteno

Is it worth betting on Nacional Asuncion?

🔵 Nacional Asuncion: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 33.05% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.02. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 330 times – having a profit of $666.60;
• And would lose other 670 times – losing -$670.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, this is a value bet because you would have an expected final profit of 💰$3.40.

Is it a good idea to bet on draw?

⚪ draw: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 32.23%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 3.06. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 320 times – this would give you a profit of $659.20
• And would have lost other 680 times – with a loss of -$680.00 because of them.

Even if it is a positive expected value bet, the expected profit is just 💰$20.80 which is not worth the risk in our opinion.

Is it a good idea to bet on Cerro Porteno?

🔴 Cerro Porteno: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 34.72% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 2.25. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 350 times – having a profit of $437.50;
• And would lose other 650 times – having a loss of -$650.00 with them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$212.50.

Handicaps analysis for the match Nacional Asuncion x Cerro Porteno

Maybe you prefer another approach: betting on Asian handicaps. We thought about it and our model also seeks to find the main handicaps of the most important markets. Maybe you do not even know what this is. If handicap is a 7-headed monster for you, all you have to do is click on our article about Asian handicap on football betting and you will find a complete material to quickly teach you how it works. Click on it and leave it open on another tab to read later..

Take a look at what our artificial intelligence has set apart for these markets:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: 0.0 Nacional Asuncion
⚽ Expected goals: 2.00 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Nacional Asuncion x Cerro Porteno

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 0.0 Nacional Asuncion, and the current handicap offered by bookies is +0.25 Nacional Asuncion.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is -0.25, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: +0.25 Nacional Asuncion.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Nacional Asuncion x Cerro Porteno

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.00 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.00 goals.

Since the handicap offered by bookmakers is the same as the one we got with our model, there is not any value bets on the Goals Handicap market.