📊 Check out the analysis from this match on Betfellows: Complete prognostic for Newcastle Jets x Western Sydney Wanderers
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Analysis from Newcastle Jets x Western Sydney Wanderers for the Australia A-League – 26 of December
🏟️ Newcastle Jets X Western Sydney Wanderers – Australia A-League
Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Newcastle Jets x Western Sydney Wanderersright, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.
To achieve that, the algorithm analyses more than 281997 matches from Betfellows database, our collaborative prediction platform, seeking for patterns to get to the winning probabilities for the home team, a tie or a victory for the away team. That was the conclusion from our artificial intelligence:
Tips for the 1×2 market for Newcastle Jets x Western Sydney Wanderers
Is betting on Newcastle Jets worth it?
🔵 Newcastle Jets: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 42.85% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 2.37. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would have hit 430 times – having a profit of $586.95;
- And would lose other 570 times – losing -$570.00 with them.
Even if it is a positive expected value bet, the expected profit is just 💰$16.95 which is not worth the risk in our opinion.
Is it a good idea to bet on draw?
⚪ draw: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 28.85%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 3.37. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 290 times – this would give you a profit of $685.85
- And would have lost other 710 times – with a loss of -$710.00 because of them.
Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$24.15.
Is betting on Western Sydney Wanderers worth it?
🔴 Western Sydney Wanderers: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 28.3% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 2.75. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:
- Would have hit 280 times – having a profit of $491.40;
- And would lose other 720 times – losing -$720.00 with them.
We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$228.60.
Handicaps analysis for the match Newcastle Jets x Western Sydney Wanderers
The handicap market is also very searched for by bettors in professional bookmakers and our model can help you with that. In case you do not know what handicaps are, we will solve this problem now: we sorted out the material about Asian handicap on betting so you can click and save it to learn about it on the first opportunity.
Going ahead we can see what the model has in store for these markets here:
⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.5 Newcastle Jets
⚽ Expected goals: 2.75 goals
Tips for the market Handicap 1×2 for Newcastle Jets x Western Sydney Wanderers
⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be -0.5 Newcastle Jets, and the current handicap offered by bookies is -0.25 Newcastle Jets.
Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is -0.25, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: -0.25 Newcastle Jets.
Tips for the market Goals Handicap for Newcastle Jets x Western Sydney Wanderers
⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.75 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.75 goals.
Since there is not big differences between the handicap offered by bookies nand the one suggested by our algorithm, we can consider that there is no value to bet on the Goals Handicapmarket.
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Hi there! You can call me Beto! I'm 32 years old, graduated in Business Management and now I'm doing my second degree in Statistics and Data Science, which is really helpful to bring the Machine Learning models applied in sports betting that you see here. Even though I'm in this betting world since 2010, there's still a lot to be learned.> Check other content created by Humberto Alves