📊 Check out the full analysis on Betfellows: Prognostic for Nigeria x Sudan
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Analysis from Nigeria x Sudan for the Africa Cup of Nations – 15 of January
🏟️ Nigeria X Sudan – Africa Cup of Nations
A good bettor is not the one with a high hits percentage, but the one who bets on positive expected value events. Our AI model knows it very well and has looked for these opportunities for the match between Nigeria and Sudan.
To achieve that, the algorithm analyses more than 287992 matches from Betfellows database, our collaborative prediction platform, seeking for patterns to get to the winning probabilities for the home team, a tie or a victory for the away team. That was the conclusion from our artificial intelligence:
Tips for the 1×2 market for Nigeria x Sudan
Is betting on Nigeria worth it?
🔵 Nigeria: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 98.28% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 1.18. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would have hit 980 times – having a profit of $176.40;
- And would lose other 20 times – losing -$20.00 with them.
So this is a value bet. After all, at the end of these bets, you would have an expected profit of 💰$156.40.
Should you bet on draw?
⚪ draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 1.49% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 5.62. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 10 times – profiting $46.25;
- And would lose other 990 times – losing -$990.00 with them.
So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$943.75.
Is it a good idea to bet on Sudan?
🔴 Sudan: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 0.23% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 18.83. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would have hit 0 times – having a profit of $0.00;
- And would lose other 1000 times – losing -$1000.00 with them.
That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$1000.00.
Handicaps analysis for the match Nigeria x Sudan
The handicap market is also very searched for by bettors in professional bookmakers and our model can help you with that. In case you do not know what handicaps are, we will solve this problem now: we sorted out the material about Asian handicap on betting so you can click and save it to learn about it on the first opportunity.
Moving ahead we can see what the model has in store for these markets here:
⚖ Handicap 1×2: -2.0 Nigeria
⚽ Expected goals: 3.00 goals
Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Nigeria x Sudan
⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is -2.0 Nigeria and the available handicap to bet at the moment is -1.75 Nigeria.
We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is -0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: -1.75 Nigeria.
Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Nigeria x Sudan
⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 3.00 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.25 goals.
Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.75, this means that the best bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.25 goals.
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Hi there! You can call me Beto! I'm 32 years old, graduated in Business Management and now I'm doing my second degree in Statistics and Data Science, which is really helpful to bring the Machine Learning models applied in sports betting that you see here. Even though I'm in this betting world since 2010, there's still a lot to be learned.> Check other content created by Humberto Alves