Northampton x Bolton Betting tips for October 1 in England League 1
| 📅 1/10/2024 15:45 |
 Northampton4.02 |
X 3.60 |
Bolton  1.80 |
This is the bet made by our artificial intelligence for Northampton x Bolton:
🔮 Bolton wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Bolton, you can win up to $900.00!
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Some important points for the tip for Northampton x Bolton: 👉 If you had bet $100 on Northampton in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-245.0. |
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Analysis from Northampton x Bolton for the England League 1 – 1 of October
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🏟️ Northampton X Bolton – England League 1 |
When the best bet on Northampton x Bolton is analysed, notice that our AI model is not interested in getting the right result, but instead in looking for situations where the bookies offer us a positive expected value.
To achieve that, the algorithm analyses more than 1192611 matches from our database seeking for patterns to get to the winning probabilities for the home team, a tie or a victory for the away team. That was the conclusion from our artificial intelligence:
Tips for the 1×2 market for Northampton x Bolton
Is it a good idea to bet on Northampton?
🔵 Northampton: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 8.84%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 4.02. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 90 times – this would give you a profit of $271.80
- And would have lost other 910 times – with a loss of -$910.00 because of them.
So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$638.20.
Is betting on draw worth it?
⚪ draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 9.65% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.60. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:
- Would hit 100 times – profiting $260.00;
- And would lose other 900 times – losing -$900.00 with them.
Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$640.00.
Is it worth betting on Bolton?
🔴 Bolton: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 81.51% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 1.80. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would have hit 820 times – having a profit of $656.00;
- And would have lost other 180 times – with a loss of -$180.00 because of them.
So this is a value bet. After all, at the end of these bets, you would have an expected profit of 💰$476.00.
Handicaps analysis for the match Northampton x Bolton
Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. Maybe you do not even know what this is. If handicap is a 7-headed monster for you, all you have to do is click on our article about Asian handicap on football betting and you will find a complete material to quickly teach you how it works. Click on it and leave it open on another tab to read later..
Take a look at what our artificial intelligence has set apart for these markets:
⚖ Handicap 1×2: +0.5 Northampton
⚽ Expected goals: 2.75 goals
Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Northampton x Bolton
⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be +0.5 Northampton, and the current handicap offered by bookies is +0.5 Northampton.
The handicap that our algorithm found is the same as the bookies, which means that there is not any value to bet on the Handicap 1×2 market.
Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Northampton x Bolton
⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.75 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.50 goals.
We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.50 goals.
