Padova x Triestina Betting tips for December 1 in Italy Serie C Group A

Our betting tip for Padova x Triestina, Sunday, 1/12/2024

📅 1/12/2024 14:30

Padova 1.38

X 4.00

Triestina 7.50

This is the bet made by our artificial intelligence for Padova x Triestina:

🔮 Padova wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Padova, you can win up to $690.00!

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The main points for the tip for Padova x Triestina: 👉 If you had bet $100 on Padova in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-4.0. 👉 If you had bet $100 on Triestina in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-500. 👉 Triestina did not score any goals in the last 4 matches as away team. 👉 In the last 3 matches as the home team, Padova scored at least 1 goal(s). 👉 In the last 3 matches as the home team against Triestina, Padova scored at least 1 goal(s). 👉 In the last 5 Triestina matches as the away team, it finished under 2.5 goals. 👉 Padova has not lost any of the last 5 head-to-head matches against Triestina playing at home.

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Analysis from Padova x Triestina for the Italy Serie C Group A – 1 of December

Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Padova x Triestina right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.

And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1230121 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:

Tips for the Match Odds market for Padova x Triestina

Should you bet on Padova?

🔵 Padova: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 83.68% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 1.38. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 840 times – profiting $319.20;
• And would lose other 160 times – losing -$160.00 with them.

It is a value bet, since after all you would have an expected final profit of 💰$159.20.

Is it a good idea to bet on draw?

⚪ draw: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 12.22% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 4.00. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 120 times – this would give you a profit of $360.00
• And would have lost other 880 times – with a loss of -$880.00 because of them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$520.00.

Is it worth betting on Triestina?

🔴 Triestina: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 4.1% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 7.50. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 40 times – this would give you a profit of $260.00
• And would have lost other 960 times – with a loss of -$960.00 because of them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$700.00.

Handicaps analysis for the match Padova x Triestina

The handicap market is also very searched for by bettors in professional bookmakers and our model can help you with that. If you have no idea what a handicap is, do not worry! We have a complete article about the Asian handicap on sporting betting that will answer all your questions. You can click on it and leave it open on another tab so you can read later.

These are the handicaps that our algorithm analysed for you:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.75 Padova
⚽ Expected goals: 2.50 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Padova x Triestina

⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is -0.75 Padova and the available handicap to bet at the moment is -1.25 Padova.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.50. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: 1.25 Triestina.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Padova x Triestina

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.50 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.25 goals.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.25 goals.