Palmeiras x Chelsea Betting tips for July 5 in FIFA Club World Cup

Our betting tip for Palmeiras x Chelsea, Saturday, 5/7/2025

📅 5/7/2025 01:00

Palmeiras 3.60

X 3.30

Chelsea 2.06

This is the bet made by our artificial intelligence for Palmeiras x Chelsea:

👎 Umm…what a pity! We do not have any positive expected value tips for Palmeiras x Chelsea

Some important points for the tip for Palmeiras x Chelsea:

👉 If you had bet $100 on Palmeiras in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-3.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Chelsea in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a profit of $230.0.
👉 Palmeiras did not concede a goal in the last 4 matches as home team.
👉 In the last 5 matches as the away team, Chelsea scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 3 Palmeiras matches as the home team, it finished under 2.5 goals.
👉 In the last 4 Chelsea matches as the away team, it finished over 2.5 goals.

🤖 What does ChatGPT have to say about our prediction for Palmeiras vs Chelsea?

⚽ The match between Palmeiras and Chelsea at Lincoln Financial Field promises to be a balanced duel, but with some important nuances. The stadium is neutral for both teams, as it is not their usual stadium, which may level the forces a bit.

📊 Analyzing recent statistics, Palmeiras has an average of 1.8 goals scored and 0.4 conceded in recent home games (considering the last 5 matches), while Chelsea has a higher average of goals scored away (2.6) and also concedes more goals (1). Chelsea dominates ball possession with about 59%, compared to 49% for Palmeiras, showing greater control of the game.

🎯 Offensively, Palmeiras takes more shots per game (16) compared to Chelsea (11), but the visitor has higher offensive efficiency with a higher average of goals scored.

💡 The median odds indicate favoritism for Chelsea (~2.06), a draw (~3.3), and Palmeiras victory (~3.6). After normalizing the implied probabilities from the median odds, we get approximately: Palmeiras win ~24%, Draw ~29%, Chelsea win ~47%. Considering the statistics and the neutral scenario at Lincoln Financial Field, this distribution makes sense.

🔍 Our adjusted calculation suggests fair odds close to these probabilities but weighs some additional factors: an important absence in Palmeiras defense due to injuries may weaken their backline; on the other hand, Paulinho is not yet in full physical form; Chelsea comes motivated after a convincing win against Benfica despite adverse weather conditions.

💰 We calculated a negative expected value for all bets at the current final odds — no bet offers a positive expected value above 5% recommended to be considered a safe bet at this time.

📰 Recent news highlights that coach Abel Ferreira will have significant absences in Palmeiras defense while Paulinho remains injured; this weighs against them against the strong London attack led by coach Enzo Maresca, who recently overcame adversities demonstrating resilience and high tactical quality.

Suggestion: Despite the slight advantage in probabilities for Chelseas victory reflected in the odds offered by bookmakers, we recommend caution as no option currently shows a significant positive expected value — better to wait for adjustments or look for alternative markets such as both teams to score or Asian handicap depending on the line offered by the bookmaker before the match.
🤝 We partially agree with the Bets Kenya model regarding the odds forecast but disagree on betting directly on these lines without finding clear value in the current market.
Good luck! 🍀

Do you want other suggestions of bookmakers to bet on Palmeiras x Chelsea?

If you want other options of bookmakers to bet on Palmeiras x Chelsea, no problem. Right below you have the sports betting sites that we used the most in 2025. You will be in good hands on any of them, just pick your favorite and start betting:

Analysis from Palmeiras x Chelsea for the FIFA Club World Cup – 5 of July

When the best bet on Palmeiras x Chelsea is analysed, notice that our AI model is not interested in getting the right result, but instead in looking for situations where the bookies offer us a positive expected value.

And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1348443 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:

Tips for the Match Odds market for Palmeiras x Chelsea

Is it a good idea to bet on Palmeiras?

🔵 Palmeiras: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 25.89% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.60. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 260 times – this would give you a profit of $676.00
• And would lose other 740 times – losing -$740.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$64.00.

Is it worth betting on draw?

⚪ draw: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 26.28% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.30. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 260 times – this would give you a profit of $598.00
• And would lose other 740 times – losing -$740.00 with them.

That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$142.00.

Is betting on Chelsea worth it?

🔴 Chelsea: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 47.83%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 2.06. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 480 times – profiting $508.80;
• And would lose other 520 times – losing -$520.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$11.20.

Handicaps analysis for the match Palmeiras x Chelsea

Another important market to analyse is the Asian handicaps one, our algorithm is also going to help you with that. In case you do not know what handicaps are, we will solve this problem now: we sorted out the material about Asian handicap on betting so you can click and save it to learn about it on the first opportunity.

These are the handicaps that our algorithm analysed for you:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: +0.25 Palmeiras
⚽ Expected goals: 2.75 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Palmeiras x Chelsea

⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is +0.25 Palmeiras and the available handicap to bet at the moment is +0.25 Palmeiras. As the handicap available on the market is the same as that indicated by our robot, we will do nothing since there is not value bets on the Handicap 1×2 market.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Palmeiras x Chelsea

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.75 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.25 goals.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.50, this means that the best bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.25 goals.