📊 You can also check out the full analysis on Betfellows: Prognostic for Penafiel x Vilafranquense
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Analysis from Penafiel x Vilafranquense for the Portugal Segunda Liga – 15 of January
🏟️ Penafiel X Vilafranquense – Portugal Segunda Liga
When the best bet on Penafiel x Vilafranquense is analysed, notice that our AI model is not interested in getting the right result, but instead in looking for situations where the bookies offer us a positive expected value.
And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 287992 matches on the database from our soccer prognostics platform, Betfellows, looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:
Tips for the Match Odds market for Penafiel x Vilafranquense
Is it worth betting on Penafiel?
🔵 Penafiel: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 73.21%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 1.52. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would have hit 730 times – having a profit of $379.60;
- And would lose other 270 times – losing -$270.00 with them.
Mathematically speaking, this is a value bet because you would have an expected final profit of 💰$109.60.
Is it worth betting on draw?
⚪ draw: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 16.6% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.60. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 170 times – profiting $442.00;
- And would lose other 830 times – having a loss of -$830.00 with them.
So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$388.00.
Is it worth betting on Vilafranquense?
🔴 Vilafranquense: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 10.19% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 5.71. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 100 times – profiting $471.00;
- And would lose other 900 times – losing -$900.00 with them.
So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$429.00.
Handicaps analysis for the match Penafiel x Vilafranquense
Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. In case you do not know what handicaps are, we will solve this problem now: we sorted out the material about Asian handicap on betting so you can click and save it to learn about it on the first opportunity.
Moving ahead we can see what the model has in store for these markets here:
⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.75 Penafiel
⚽ Expected goals: 2.50 goals
Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Penafiel x Vilafranquense
⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is -0.75 Penafiel and the available handicap to bet at the moment is -1.0 Penafiel.
Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.25, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: 1.0 Vilafranquense.
Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Penafiel x Vilafranquense
⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 2.50 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.25 goals.
Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.25, this means that the best bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.25 goals.
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Hi there! You can call me Beto! I'm 32 years old, graduated in Business Management and now I'm doing my second degree in Statistics and Data Science, which is really helpful to bring the Machine Learning models applied in sports betting that you see here. Even though I'm in this betting world since 2010, there's still a lot to be learned.> Check other content created by Humberto Alves