Penybont x Cardiff MU Betting tips for March 14 in Wales Premier League
| 📅 14/3/2025 19:45 |
 Penybont1.67 |
X 3.75 |
Cardiff MU  4.20 |
This is the bet from our artificial intelligence for Penybont x Cardiff MU:
👎 Unfortunately, we did not find any positive expected value bets for Penybont x Cardiff MU
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The main points for the tip for Penybont x Cardiff MU: 👉 If you had bet $100 on Penybont in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a profit of $32.0. |
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Analysis from Penybont x Cardiff MU for the Wales Premier League – 14 of March
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🏟️ Penybont X Cardiff MU – Wales Premier League |
Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Penybont x Cardiff MU right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.
To achieve that, the algorithm analyses more than 1281036 matches from our database seeking for patterns to get to the winning probabilities for the home team, a tie or a victory for the away team. That was the conclusion from our artificial intelligence:
Tips for the 1×2 market for Penybont x Cardiff MU
Should you bet on Penybont?
🔵 Penybont: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 60.3%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 1.67. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:
- Would have hit 600 times – having a profit of $402.00;
- And would have lost other 400 times – with a loss of -$400.00 because of them.
Even if it is a positive expected value bet, the expected profit is just 💰$2.00 which is not worth the risk in our opinion.
Is it a good idea to bet on draw?
⚪ draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 25.54% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.75. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:
- Would have hit 260 times – having a profit of $715.00;
- And would have lost other 740 times – with a loss of -$740.00 because of them.
That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$25.00.
Is betting on Cardiff MU worth it?
🔴 Cardiff MU: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 14.15% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 4.20. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 140 times – profiting $448.00;
- And would lose other 860 times – having a loss of -$860.00 with them.
Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$412.00.
Handicaps analysis for the match Penybont x Cardiff MU
Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. If you have no idea what a handicap is, do not worry! We have a complete article about the Asian handicap on sporting betting that will answer all your questions. You can click on it and leave it open on another tab so you can read later.
These are the handicaps that our algorithm analysed for you:
⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.5 Penybont
⚽ Expected goals: 2.75 goals
Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Penybont x Cardiff MU
⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is -0.5 Penybont and the available handicap to bet at the moment is -0.75 Penybont.
We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: 0.75 Cardiff MU.
Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Penybont x Cardiff MU
⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 2.75 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.75 goals.
Since the handicap offered by bookmakers is the same as the one we got with our model, there is not any value bets on the Goals Handicap market.
