Pero Pinheiro x Alcains Betting tips for January 12 in Portugal Campeonato Nacional

Our betting tip for Pero Pinheiro x Alcains, Sunday, 12/1/2025

📅 12/1/2025 15:00

Pero Pinheiro 2.87

X 2.90

Alcains 2.30

Our algorithm has selected this tip for Pero Pinheiro x Alcains:

👎 Umm…what a pity! We do not have any positive expected value tips for Pero Pinheiro x Alcains

Some important points for the tip for Pero Pinheiro x Alcains: 👉 If you had bet $100 on Pero Pinheiro in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-260.0. 👉 If you had bet $100 on Alcains in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-500. 👉 Pero Pinheiro did not score any goals in the last 4 matches as home team. 👉 Alcains did not score any goals in the last 4 matches as away team. 👉 In the last 4 Pero Pinheiro matches as the home team, it finished under 2.5 goals. 👉 In the last 4 Alcains matches as the away team, it finished under 2.5 goals.

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Analysis from Pero Pinheiro x Alcains for the Portugal Campeonato Nacional – 12 of January

Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Pero Pinheiro x Alcains right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.

And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1244844 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:

Tips for the 1×2 market for Pero Pinheiro x Alcains

Is it a good idea to bet on Pero Pinheiro?

🔵 Pero Pinheiro: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 24.75% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 2.87. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 250 times – this would give you a profit of $467.50
• And would lose other 750 times – having a loss of -$750.00 with them.

We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$282.50.

Is betting on draw worth it?

⚪ draw: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 32.56%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 2.90. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 330 times – having a profit of $627.00;
• And would lose other 670 times – having a loss of -$670.00 with them.

Although this bet has some value, notice that the expected profit is just 💰$43.00, which is not worth the risk in our point of view.

Is betting on Alcains worth it?

🔴 Alcains: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 42.68% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 2.30. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would have hit 430 times – having a profit of $559.00;
• And would have lost other 570 times – with a loss of -$570.00 because of them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$11.00.

Handicaps analysis for the match Pero Pinheiro x Alcains

Another important market to analyse is the Asian handicaps one, our algorithm is also going to help you with that. In case you do not know what handicaps are, we will solve this problem now: we sorted out the material about Asian handicap on betting so you can click and save it to learn about it on the first opportunity.

These are the handicaps that our algorithm analysed for you:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: 0.0 Pero Pinheiro
⚽ Expected goals: 2.50 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Pero Pinheiro x Alcains

⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 0.0 Pero Pinheiro and the available handicap to bet at the moment is +0.25 Pero Pinheiro.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is -0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: +0.25 Pero Pinheiro.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Pero Pinheiro x Alcains

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.50 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.00 goals.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.50. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.00 goals.