📊 Check out the analysis on Betfellows for this match: Full prognostic for Pordenone x Lecce
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Analysis from Pordenone x Lecce for the Italy Serie B – 26 of December
🏟️ Pordenone X Lecce – Italy Serie B
Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Pordenone x Lecceright, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.
To achieve that, the algorithm analyses more than 281997 matches from Betfellows database, our collaborative prediction platform, seeking for patterns to get to the winning probabilities for the home team, a tie or a victory for the away team. That was the conclusion from our artificial intelligence:
Tips for the Match Odds market for Pordenone x Lecce
Should you bet on Pordenone?
🔵 Pordenone: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 17.07%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 3.40. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:
- Would hit 170 times – profiting $408.00;
- And would have lost other 830 times – with a loss of -$830.00 because of them.
We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$422.00.
Is betting on draw worth it?
⚪ draw: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 30.71%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 3.41. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:
- Would hit 310 times – profiting $747.10;
- And would have lost other 690 times – with a loss of -$690.00 because of them.
Even if it is a positive expected value bet, the expected profit is just 💰$57.10 which is not worth the risk in our opinion.
Is it worth betting on Lecce?
🔴 Lecce: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 52.22%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 1.95. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:
- Would hit 520 times – this would give you a profit of $494.00
- And would lose other 480 times – having a loss of -$480.00 with them.
Even if it is a positive expected value bet, the expected profit is just 💰$14.00 which is not worth the risk in our opinion.
Handicaps analysis for the match Pordenone x Lecce
Another important market to analyse is the Asian handicaps one, our algorithm is also going to help you with that. Maybe you do not even know what this is. If handicap is a 7-headed monster for you, all you have to do is click on our article about Asian handicap on soccer betting and you will find a complete material to quickly teach you how it works. Click on it and leave it open on another tab to read later..
Going ahead we can see what the model has in store for these markets here:
⚖ Handicap 1×2: 0.0 Pordenone
⚽ Expected goals: 2.50 goals
Tips for the market Handicap 1×2 for Pordenone x Lecce
⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 0.0 Pordenone, and the current handicap offered by bookies is +0.5 Pordenone.
We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is -0.50. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: +0.5 Pordenone.
Tips for the market Goals Handicap for Pordenone x Lecce
⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 2.50 goals and the available handicap to bet at that moment is 2.50 goals.
The handicap that our algorithm found is the same as the bookies, which means that there is not any value to bet on the Goals Handicapmarket.
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Hi there! You can call me Beto! I'm 32 years old, graduated in Business Management and now I'm doing my second degree in Statistics and Data Science, which is really helpful to bring the Machine Learning models applied in sports betting that you see here. Even though I'm in this betting world since 2010, there's still a lot to be learned.> Check other content created by Humberto Alves